150
FXUS64 KLIX 090454
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Daytime heat will remain elevated with heat indices in the low
100s through Sunday. Stay hydrated, limit time outdoors during peak
afternoon heat, and be mindful of signs of heat-related illness.

2. A pattern change in the medium range with a broad trough of low
pressure possible in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the latter
half of the week. No tropical impacts are expected from this system
over our area during the next 7 days.

Another hot day in the books with highs topping out in the mid to
upper 90s. BTR is at 97F thus far, 1 degree shy of their daily max
set back in 1972. PQL reached 96F briefly, breaking their prior
record of 94F set in 2022. Surface high pressure and mid-level
ridging remain dominant over the area with only minimal fair weather
cu noted over coastal LA, where moisture is slightly higher.

Drier conditions today will fade as we`ve already started to see
light southerlies return as the surface high scoots to the east.
Onshore flow will allow dew points to rise again across the northern
half of the CWA keeping overnight temps more elevated than last
night. Advective properties coupled with radiational cooling will
allow for some patchy fog development in lower lying areas primarily
over the Atchafalaya and southwest MS around sunrise.

Higher low-level moisture and subtle height falls should be
sufficient for a bit more afternoon cu and a few pop up storms
focused over the Atchafalaya and River Parishes on Sunday afternoon.
This slightly more agitated cu field will not mitigate the heat too
much aside from being in direct proximity to thunderstorms. However,
this does appear to be the last very hot day for a little bit as
temperatures return closer to normal into next week. Stay hydrated
out there! (TJS)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft as the large
scale trough remains across the eastern US. A surface front will
move closer and perhaps through the region Monday into Monday Night.
The globals tend to remain somewhat dry with the feature so
continued the low end or mentionable POPs for now since there is a
nonzero potential. This trough begins to exit stage east going into
the middle part of the week. Eyes shift upstream as an H5 shortwave
begins to amplify and move toward our region by early Wednesday.
This feature within the northwesterly flow could signal yet another
MCS...we will wait and see, but the pattern at least is supportive.

At the same time, globals have been signaling a very broad surface
low (Central American Gyre) developing. This feature will help push
deep low level tropical moisture northward, especially across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Globals are having a difficult time with
this feature and the evolution. GFS has been the more bullish
solution and attempts to develop a hybrid surface low. The issue
here is the very broad low level pressure field is causing some
resolution issues...so the GFS is latching onto convective feedback
signals pretty easily and dropping a low under these features, which
is not atypical for the GFS this time of year. The GEM and ECMWF
show the moisture and at least an inverted surface trough.
Similarly, the broad low level pressure field is also causing these
globals issues as well at least in terms of where and when the
trough develops and where it eventually ends up. For now, late week
and into next weekend the overall confidence is low in terms of the
actual forecast. Went with the consensus guidance through most of
the long range for POPs. If the latest 08/12z guidance is anywhere
near close to the eventual outcome, the best rainfall will be
situated east of our forecast area. Regardless, we`ll have to keep
monitoring this feature and the evolution as a few GEFS and EPS
members do try to bring this weak trough/wave closer to our region
next weekend. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions continue for the whole forecast period. Light/calm
winds are expected overnight then becoming westerly with few to no
clouds. There is a little bit (~30%) chance of showers/storms
that`s within MSY`s 30 hour forecast but left out mention of it
since it`s still a while to go as well as low chances. -BL


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A frontal system will slowly
progress southeast through early next week that should stall
offshore Wednesday bringing northerly winds to the area once
again. All of these winds will be 5-10 knots or less, but locally
higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection.
Otherwise, winds and seas look to increase a bit toward the end of
the workweek as pressure gradient tightens across the the local
waters and tidal lakes. (DS/TJS/FRYE)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  93  71  90 /   0   0  10  30
BTR  75  95  74  95 /   0  10  10  40
ASD  74  94  74  95 /   0   0   0  40
MSY  76  93  77  93 /   0  10   0  40
GPT  75  92  75  93 /   0   0   0  40
PQL  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...DS