998
FXUS64 KLIX 010430
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1130 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight through Saturday... Generally, a couple more upper level
impulses will move through over the next couple of days. There is
still a ton of model uncertainty in the timing of these storms. And
in general, the models, especially the CAMs, are going to continue
to struggle to pinpoint timing until storms are ongoing and start
firing up (real-time to near-time weather basically). So, the timing
is a factor that will remain quite uncertain over the next few days.
But overall, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be
expected, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours
with peak daytime heating. These storms will have the risk of hail
and damaging winds (30-60mph), based on the lapse rates and
instability available. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern (PWs
are quite high, climatologically) and could cause minor flooding or
ponding on local roads and make visibility while driving difficult.
The localized flooding risk would be higher for urban or vulnerable
locations, as is common for this time of year. Overall, stay weather
aware over the next few days as we continue in this unsettled
pattern for the atmosphere. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Sunday through mid-week... Sunday and Monday, several more upper
level impulses will be moving through the area. These will look
pretty similar to the last few days, and there are still a lot of
uncertainties in the models regarding timing of the best convection.
Generally though, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be
expected, especially during the afternoon/evening hours on Sunday
and Monday. On Monday, the bulk of the rainfall will be more for our
northern areas, but this could change as we get closer. These storms
will, based on model soundings, likely have the risk of locally
heavy rainfall, small hail, and winds (30-60mph). Stay weather aware
on Sunday and Monday of next week.

Tuesday through mid-week, conditions should be a bit drier as a weak
ridge starts to build in over the area. Generally, rain chances will
be lower. An isolated shower will be possible, but likely will not
be severe at this time, looking at the models. Temperatures will be
a little warmer though, as a result. Highs are forecast to be in the
low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Rain and thunderstorms have completely cleared the area leaving
VFR conditions. This should hold through the late night hours,
with likely MVFR ceilings and visibilites at KBTR and KMCB early
morning before sunrise. Daytime tomorrow will see widespread SHRA
and VCTS in the late morning through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Benign marine conditions overall. Generally, southerly to
southeasterly winds will prevail with moderate to calm winds
(10-15kts) throughout the forecast period. Showers and storms will
be possible every day, especially in the afternoon and evening
hours, through Tuesday which could produce locally higher gusts.
MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  83  67 /  70  60  80  20
BTR  89  73  89  73 /  80  30  80  20
ASD  89  73  88  71 /  50  60  90  30
MSY  89  76  88  75 /  60  40  90  30
GPT  88  75  85  73 /  30  70  90  50
PQL  90  73  86  71 /  20  70  90  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MSW