781
FXUS64 KLIX 301754
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1254 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The old front has backed off into central Miss which is where some
sh/ts are developing this morning. A few storms are moving NE as
they follow this boundary north of Natchez and this area through
central Miss should continue to fester until after sunrise. The
MCS that moved offshore of Cameron Parish this morning is
following a ThetaE gradient to the SE. This gradient will hang
around today and will set up from south of New Orleans to
Lafayette up to Shreveport. This will be the second area that
sh/ts will develop today. Most activity today will be the more
normal summer type pop up storms. The late afternoon/evening
activity is being advertised to move into the area again with
models trying to indicate the MCS over the northern TX panhandle
running along the old frontal boundary then dividing as one area
moves along the front and another moving along the ThetaE axis.
Some models try to keep this whole thing together, but this would
be unusual and some just keep this MCS moving along the Red River
Valley then dissipate it after sunset today. Regardless of which
way this goes, any activity that decays west of the area could and
most likely would cause new storms to develop downstream in our
area and if they actually make it in tact, we would still get some
storms with it. The fcast will reflect this outcome for today
with scattered storms over about 2/3rds of the area. This pattern
does not change a lot for Fri, but some subtle differences are
shown. The old front well to the north will buckle into Oklahoma
where a sfc low will develop early Fri and move east. This should
be the main corridor for most storms to develop and travel Fri.
The ThetaE gradient will still be located over the area near New
Orleans except it will also buckle northward from just west of BTR
to Monroe starting tonight. This will actually produce a barrier-
like feature causing anything that makes it east of this line to
begin decaying, but moving into this drier air mass could produce
some strong wind speeds. That being said, downburst numbers are
basically nonexistent today and tomorrow. And the best numbers
for severe storms will be over and west of BTR and along and west
of a BTR to MCB line Fri. Synoptic models are promising a run away
squall line moving out of NW TX tonight into Fri morning. If this
were to occur, it would look menacing but should not hold
together very long as it moves across LA especially once it
encounters this boundary/barrier. Storms look to develop over the
NW/NC gulf Fri and move north along this barrier between BTR and
LFT to join the sfc low and new front that will be pushing through
the central plains. Other than this activity possibly moving over
the western most portion of the area Fri, that would be about it
outside a renegade pop up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As the sfc low ejects to the NE it will cause the deep moisture
field to also spread east(moving our barrier east) setting up new
gradients. The "barrier" gradient looks to be found from west of
Tallahassee northward well into central Tennessee then joining
the sfc low to the north. The next gradient forms from SE Oklahoma
to BTR to NEW. These two avenues are also where most of the sh/ts
develop and travel except most storms with the eastern boundary
should be moving north bound unless cold pools can propagate
storms southward, while the western boundary would still be the
MCS path to the SE bringing our rain chances higher Sat. After
Sat, it is quite difficult to have enough confidence in any
particular outcome. But global models are causing the entire gulf
south flow to move gradients and boundaries northward as another
cold front moves southward out of Canada. We should see the first
glimpse of this late Monday as it moves into the northern tier of
states. This is advertised to be close to the area by late Thu and
into the gulf before stalling late Fri or early Sat of next week.
Yes, we are far away for any strength of forecasting but when all
global models agree on the same solution for systems in the
westerlies, it does make one take notice. But we do need to factor
in the time of year and that most of these systems stall before
getting here or over the area. We will need to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Numerous thunderstorms have developed at all terminals near Lake
Pontchartrain. Storm motions will be erratic in nature with
dozens of outflow boundaries moving across the region through the
next several hours. LIFR visibilities from these storms should be
relatively short term but IFR/MVFR ceilings will likely last
longer. VFR conditions will return 01-02Z as storms dissipated
with loss of daytime heating. After a night of light/variable
winds, expect moderate southeasterly flow with gusts 15-20kts by
mid morning Friday.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A very normal summer pattern is setting up over the northern gulf
which is an onshore flow as fronts or troughs stall well inland. The
fcast will reflect this as southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain
over all waters into the new week. Any storms that are capable of
developing or moving offshore will be able to produce erratic and
much higher wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  86  68  85 /  20  30  30  70
BTR  73  89  73  88 /  20  60  20  70
ASD  72  89  74  88 /  10  30  20  70
MSY  76  88  76  88 /  10  40  20  60
GPT  73  88  75  87 /  10  20  20  70
PQL  69  91  73  88 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE