Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
507 FXUS64 KLIX 291734 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1234 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 We continue to look to the west to see what our next weather day will be like. These MCS complexes are sometimes refered to as "ridge riders". Cute name, but it doesn`t tell you enough. A synoptic dome of high pressure is quite large and can take up quite a chunk of real estate across the CONUS and oceans. So just leaving it as these systems are moving around a large dome of high pressure would not be enough because there is a lot of space this could occur. But upon closer inspection, one can see where each high dome weakens at its edges, there is a trough that develops between two high domes. This weakness between two highs is where these complexes like to "ride". This is used by models as well. These troughs can be located at the sfc or at higher levels, but some type of boundary is located near these systems. This morning we still find the sfc dew pt gradient located over the area. This boundary will move a bit farther NE today and this again will be where these complexes travel east. They will weaken as they travel east since stability increases farther east, but they should be capable of getting into our area before dissipating. This will be shown in the package as a diurnal swing in precip numbers. Severe storms are always a possibility with these NW flow regimes. And numbers, although falling a bit today, are still moderate to high. The highest of these are showing up over the south shore areas for today. Downburst numbers remain high for MSY today at 26 but moderate readings are also coming in for BTR and MCB in the lower 20s. Since all severe wx fields are conditional, it does not mean there will be severe storms where these numbers are highest. It does mean that for a given location, if a storm is capable of developing, the locations with the highest numbers have the best chances of getting severe wx. For ASD and GPT numbers are 8 and 0 respectively. All other index numbers and variables that support severe storms are also found in this manner. So one can see very quickly that conditions stabilize as one moves east across our area and this is due to the frontal axis providing strong stability north and east of it and instability along, south and west of it. This will in some respect, be the dying grounds for these complexes as they move east. But outflows from these can still spark some storms downstream. By Thu, this frontal axis should be well to the NE of our area with convective bursts still following it. But as this boundary departs we will still find ThetaE boundaries/gradients to know where these features will move. There are two distinct ThetaE gradients that show up, one is with the departing front and the other is from north central TX southward toward Mexico. These two paths will be the general avenues for these systems to follow Thu. With this being the case, we structured precip numbers from lowest south to highest north as the northern portion of the area should be the highest risk of this ThetaE gradient departing. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Eventhough these MCS features develop their own ThetaE gradients, they still flow along the gradient downstream and these will have to be followed daily but a general placement of these boundaries will remain over or near the northern and western gulf coast stretching into the dry areas of west and northern TX. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The primary forecast concern through the evening hours will be the potential for convective impacts at MCB. A complex of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving through central Louisiana, and if this area of storms holds together could impact MCB between 22z and 02z. Have included prevailing SHRA and TEMPO group with thunderstorms for this time period. Elsewhere, the risk of convective development is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Going into tomorrow morning, most areas will remain VFR, but if evening rains do impact MCB, a period of IFR ceilings and visibilties could develop between 10z and 13z due to the wet soils. By 14z, all of the terminals will see VFR conditions return as the boundary layer fully mixes out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR will be found at all terminals through this taf period with the exception of two. The most at risk terminals for IFR will be BTR and MCB late today. There is a chance to get some TSRA for these two locations and if this occurs, IFR conditions could quickly develop for a short time. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Southerly winds of 10-15kt will develop again over waters east of the Miss River today and remain over all waters for the remainder of the week. Any storms that are capable of developing or moving offshore will be able to produce erratic and much higher wind speeds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 86 67 86 / 70 30 30 50 BTR 72 91 72 90 / 40 20 20 50 ASD 72 91 71 89 / 50 20 20 40 MSY 76 90 75 89 / 30 20 20 40 GPT 74 90 73 87 / 20 20 20 30 PQL 70 91 70 90 / 20 10 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...PG MARINE...TE