197
FXUS64 KLIX 270510
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through 12Z Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May
26 2024

Upper level weak ridging is currently over us with a surface high
over the Bahamas and extending into the eastern GOM. Into Monday,
a weak upper trough passes to our north providing a focus for
potential rain and a bit of a possibility for severe weather,
which will be high winds if it does happen. Beyond that, we can
expect to see the summertime pattern of spotty afternoon
convection.

The real point of interest for the short term is going to be the
heat. With the Memorial Day observance likely bringing outdoor
activities, we are highlighting the high temperatures and
humidities driving Apparent Temperatures into the 105+ range.
While this is below our Heat Advisory criteria, the combination of
first occurrence and high outdoor activities has led to issuance
of a Heat Advisory from late morning to early evening tomorrow.
/Schlotz/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(12Z Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Medium range models in fairly good agreement with the pattern
just some differences in the sensible weather and details which at
this time would be rather difficult to nail down. The main
culprit is the handling of the massive ridge that will move across
the central CONUS and build east through the second half of the
work week. How strong the ridge is and how fast moves east and far
north it is based at could make the difference between sct
convection 1 or 2 days with an increase in cloud cover leading to
warm and humid days or no rain and rather hot days. With so much
uncertainty don`t feel comfortable at this time straying away from
the NBM as it is a good middle of the ground approach.

As we head into Wednesday the Great Lakes trough will be pushing off
to the east and by the end of the day should be nudging into the
Atlantic. This will try to place the area under northwest flow aloft
and as we move deeper and deeper into the Summer northwest flow can
be tricky. We could remain dry or we could see strong to severe
storms. The northwest flow would lead to much later initiation so
Wednesday could be a rather warm day but a lot depends on how much
mid and high clouds are moving over the area because there should be
a decent s/w off to our northwest Tuesday night and early Wednesday
leading to mid and upper lvl cloud blowoff from dying convection to
our west Wednesday morning. If there is no cloud cover we will get
hot and likely see convection initiate late afternoon/early evening
but if there is a lot of cloud debris we won`t get as hot (but make
no mistake it will still be pretty miserable) and there is a good
chance we will remain mostly rain free.

We could be in a similar predicament Thursday and into Friday but
that will be determined by how strong the ridge is and whether any
impulse off to our northwest can undercut it bringing additional
isltd to sct convection late in the day. Some solutions have the
ridge axis building from the northern Gulf through the western Great
Lakes while a few other solutions have the base of the ridge moving
across the northern Lower MS Valley and then off to our east. The
flow is more zonal then over us and could allow any impulses that
move through the southern Plains to try and dive east southeast to
undercut the ridge and that would have the potential to bring
additional storms.

Main take away though is the 2nd half of the work week looks to be
warm and humid with a chance of late afternoon storms with Wednesday
having the greatest chance at this time. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Intermittent MVFR CIGs are likely to extend through the overnight
hours with more BKN coverage mixing in and southerly winds will
remain near 10 knots. Will be monitoring latest guidance for
trends in SH/TS activity headed into the morning hours.
Uncertainty exists regarding extent of coverage of stronger
thunderstorms starting late morning into evening and will likely
need to add and refine timing of these storms for terminals in
subsequent forecasts. Have added more emphasis on TSRA impacts to
ASD and HDC as well as highest confidence of impacts being to GPT
in the 1400-1800 UTC timeframe.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Surface high pressure centered near the Bahamas and extending into
the eastern GOM has winds out of the south to southwest. Tonight
expect winds to increase to just over 15 kt which resulted in
issuance of a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline. Beyond
tonight, winds over the waters are likely to remain near to below
15 kt through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  67  86 /  10  20  10  40
BTR  74  96  73  91 /   0  20  10  40
ASD  72  95  71  91 /   0  20  10  20
MSY  77  93  76  90 /   0  20  10  30
GPT  73  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  71  95  69  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ068-077-083-084-086-087.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...DS