Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 260834
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
334 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A series of weather systems will impact the region over the next
week bringing occasional bouts of convection to the forecast
area. However, today the area will be located between systems
with warm and tranquil conditions expected after some morning fog
and low clouds burn off.

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast area on
Monday as a short wave trough moving into the Plains today
traverses the lower and mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. This
system will yield isolated to scattered convection during the day
and evening with the best chances across northern sections of the
P/CWA. The potential for any severe weather is expected to remain
north of the area where the best forcing and stronger wind fields
will reside. After this system moves east of the region, a weak
cold front will approach from the north, but will not push through
the forecast area. On Tuesday, lingering moisture with a weak
frontal boundary near or just the north of the area and perhaps a
passing weak disturbance aloft may result in a few showers and
thunderstorms with the daytime heating.

Another warm and dry day is anticipated for Wednesday with upper
level ridging over the southeast conus. This will be short lived,
however, as a potent upper low/trough moving out of the southwest
U.S. and then across the Southern Plains and Texas approaches
Wednesday night and moves across the lower and mid Mississippi
Valley on Thursday. There are some differences between the GFS and
ECMWF with this system with the Euro solution featuring an upper
trough that takes on more of a negative tilt as it moves across
the lower Mississippi Valley. Widespread convection is forecast
as this system moves through from Wednesday night into Thursday
night with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. A
weak cold front associated with this system will attempt to push
into the local area.

A couple of dry days will then be on tap for Friday and Saturday
with an upper ridge sliding across the Gulf South. Then, another
vigorous system will move out of the southwest conus and into the
middle section of the country late next weekend or the beginning
of the following work week. The GFS and ECMWF have some
significant differences with how they handle this system with
regard to its evolution, strength and timing. The EURO is the
fastest model. If the Euro is correct, then more convection could
be in the offing for next Sunday. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
Once MVFR to IFR conditions due to lower cigs and patchy fog this
morning improve, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period
with southerly winds generally less than 10 knots. 95

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively weak pressure gradient will keep winds in the 10 to 15
knot range today and tonight with seas 2 to 4 feet. A surface low
will pass north of the area Monday, causing winds to strengthen a
bit, and exercise caution headlines may be necessary for a short
period. Weaker gradient flow will again be the rule Tuesday and
Tuesday night. It will be short lived, however, as yet another low
causes the pressure gradient to tighten with strong onshore flow and
rough seas Wednesday and Thursday. Small Craft Advisories may be
necessary as early as Thursday afternoon. 95

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Green.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...None.

Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN  = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE   = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
         visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
         Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
         Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED    = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
         tropical threats; events of national significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  63  82  63 /  10  10  40  20
BTR  84  65  83  65 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  82  63  81  64 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  83  67  82  67 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  78  64  78  65 /  10  10  30  10
PQL  81  63  80  64 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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