Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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441
FXUS64 KLIX 242057
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
257 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface high pressure centered just off the Louisiana coast at
mid-afternoon. At upper levels, ridging was located over Baja
California with a trough along the east coast. A reinforcing
trough was located over the northern plains. Other than a few high
clouds moving across Mississippi, little in the way of significant
weather noted. Temperatures at 2 pm were generally in the middle
60s. Away from marine influences, dew points were rather low, in
the 20s. Fortunately, there isn`t much wind to cause fire weather
issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Northern Plains shortwave will move into the base of the eastern
trough late tomorrow into Sunday. Other than a brief increase in
clouds, sensible weather effects should be small. Another chilly
night tonight, but not nearly as chilly as this morning. Expect a
bit of warming tomorrow ahead of the trough passage, with highs in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will be a little milder
tomorrow night before the cold air gets reinforced Sunday and
Monday. Even then, air isn`t quite as cold as what has been over
the area the last 36 hours. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Upper ridging builds over the northern Gulf of Mexico for the
middle of next week, bringing above normal temperatures back to
the area for that period. Beyond Wednesday, start to see
differences in the medium range model solutions in the southern
stream flow. ECMWF appears to have the most run to run
consistency, and is favored by WPC as compared to the GFS
solutions.

This would bring a brief chance of rain to the area Thursday and
Thursday night, with mainly dry weather in the offing for the
weekend. Temperatures will be well above normal from the daytime
hours Tuesday through Thursday, with a cool down to near normal
temperatures expected for the weekend. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally clear skies, excellent visibilities and light winds can be
expected through Saturday. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure will continue to settle over the central
Gulf coast region through Saturday evening resulting in light winds
and flat seas. A reinforcing front will move through late Saturday
night into Sunday morning, and will cause northeast winds to rise to
around 15 knots across the inner waters between Southwest Pass and
Pascagoula, and 10 to 15 knots across remaining waters. After a
slight lull in winds and waves Sunday afternoon, the winds and
associated waves should cycle up again Sunday night and early Monday
morning as high pressure with cool air builds into the region.

High pressure will start to move east Monday into Tuesday allowing
winds to become lighter (mostly around 10 knots or less) while
veering to east then southeast. Building high pressure from an
expanding southeast U.S. ridge may cause backing winds to more
easterly near 10 knots on Wednesday. The next strong cold front
looks to arrive around Thursday night. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  71  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  41  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  38  72  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  46  71  50  68 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  44  70  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  39  72  43  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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