Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 250116
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
816 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Routine flight terminated south of Gulfport, just southeast of Cat
Island at a height of 104,300 feet or 19.75 miles above the
surface.

Airmass remains rather dry with a precipitable water value of 0.56
inches. No cloud cover observed at launch. An inversion was in
place around 830 mb.

Winds were light northerly at launch, becoming northwest around
750 mb, then westerly around 200 mb. Peak wind of 68 knots was
measured at 41,000 feet. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Beautiful weather on tap for tonight and Tuesday with cooler and
drier air firmly in place. The surface high moderates during the
day Tuesday while moving east with return flow already becoming
established before sunset to bring a gradual increase in humidity
levels heading into Wednesday. Went close to blended model
guidance on temperatures.

LONG TERM...
Return flow gradient sharpens in response to developing low
pressure in the central Plains States Wednesday. This will aid in
increasing column moisture and eventually destabilize the air mass
for pre-frontal convection Wednesday evening and overnight. At
this time, will indicate low PoPs for the daytime hours then
increase to 50-70% range in the dark hours with what appears to be
a better punch in the models now. SPC continues to indicate a
marginal risk of severe storms within the CWA and this seems
reasonable given the better dynamics lifting northward upon the
front`s arrival. Once again, a short duration of mild weather for
Thursday before return flow becomes established rather quickly by
later in the day Thursday. Warm front lifts northward and may
induce some light convection while departing the area during the
day Friday. Saturday should be a breezy but warm and dry day with
the greater focus along the warm front in the Tennessee Valley
late Friday and Saturday. Low pressure system deepens while
digging into the Lower Mississippi Valley to bring a threat of
strong to potentially severe storms to the area late Sunday into
Sunday night, followed by another appreciable cooldown for early
next week. 24/RR

AVIATION...
Clear skies will prevail through tomorrow afternoon resulting in VFR
conditions at all of the terminals.  Winds should veer from the
north-northwest today to the southeast by tomorrow morning. 32

MARINE...
Gradient flow across the offshore waters has begun to wane this
afternoon, and will let exercise caution headlines expire at 4 PM.
As a surface high settles directly over the northern Gulf tonight,
winds should fall to 10 knots or less, and seas will fall to 1 to 3
by daybreak tomorrow.  The high is expected to pull east of the
region tomorrow, and a persistent onshore flow will set up.  This
onshore wind will gradually increase through the day, and should be
in the range of 10 to 15 knots by the evening hours.  Winds should
further increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong low
pressure system moves into the Plains states increasing the pressure
gradient over the Gulf.  Expect to see a period of exercise caution
and possibly small craft advisory conditions from Tuesday night
through Thursday morning.  As the low pulls away from the Gulf South
on Thursday, the onshore flow should briefly decrease back to around
10 to 15 knots.  However, another developing low pressure system
over the Plains and Rockies will bring back another round of strong
onshore flow for the upcoming weekend.  Expect to see southerly
winds in excess of 20 knots and seas of up to 10 feet develop by
Saturday and Sunday. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Green.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...None.

Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN  = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE   = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
         visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
         Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
         Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED    = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
         tropical threats; events of national significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  82  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  54  80  62  84 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  55  82  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  59  80  65  83 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  59  79  67  79 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  54  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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