Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 222057
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...We are beginning to wind down now from now Tropical
Depression Cindy. With that it was a windy day today across the
region with numerous locations gusting to and a few even over 40
mph. That band of heavy rain did develop over coastal MS early this
morning and led to flash flooding, mainly in Jackson county.
Otherwise we have seen a few weaker bands of convection and then
mostly scattered showers late this afternoon. Some storms did
exhibit rotation and a few tornado warnings were issued early and we
have unconfirmed reports of a possible funnel cloud or even tornado
in St Helena parish.

As for the next few days rain chances will still be above normal. TD
Cindy will continue to move north finally becoming absorbed in the
main flow Friday. As this occurs the L/W trough will amplify
eventually sending a weak front into the region Sunday. Ahead and
along this boundary, along with daytime heating, will combine with
the left over moisture from Cindy and lead to decent rain chances
each day through Sunday. The boundary should stall around the coast
overnight Sunday or early Monday. There may be just enough push to
get some drier air in here Monday and Tuesday but at the least the
deeper moisture should be pushed south and with that lower rain
chances Monday but more so Tuesday and Wednesday. As for
temperatures, we should remain warm and humid through at least
Saturday. if convection fires early in the day then extensive cloud
cover and rain could help keep the region cooler than the expected
upper 80s to near 90 that we have forecast. We could be just a tad
cooler Sunday and Monday but a lot will depend on strength and
timing of the front.

With respect to hazardous impacts. We will allow the flash flood
watch to expire at 7pm. There is still a small risk of a few more
thin bands of heavy rain but the biggest concern for any additional
flooding would be over coastal MS, mainly Harrison and Jackson
County. The coastal flood advisory will continue into tomorrow. Even
though tides at most locations have come down from their peak the
strong southerly winds and one more tide cycle will continue to lead
to some minor coastal flooding. Conditions should really begin to
improve tomorrow around midday and during the afternoon. Last is the
tornado watch which is in effect till 3z. If convection really
begins to taper off with no redevelopment in site we may cancel this
early. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings have generally improved to about 3500 feet,
though some lowering is expected again tonight. Visibilities
prevailing 6 miles except for early this afternoon where a broken
band of heavy rain is near BTR, MCB, and HDC terminals visibility
around 3 miles is possible. Winds will remain gusty from the south
with gusts over 20 knots expected through the early evening hours.
Winds then drop tonight except for more coastal terminals MSY,
NEW, ASD, GPT, and HUM. /AK/

&&

.MARINE...Even with Tropical Depression Cindy moving away and
weakening we will still deal with very strong southerly winds. All
of the coastal waters will remain in the SCY until tomorrow
afternoon. By that time winds should relax enough over much of the
area allowing the hazardous conditions to come to an end. Winds will
continue to weaken heading into the weekend as the weak front
approaches. The boundary will stall along the coast or possibly just
into the coastal waters. As this happens winds will likely be a
little more chaotic controlled more by diurnal shifts. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Yellow.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring River flooding

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  87  74  87 /  40  60  40  70
BTR  77  89  75  89 /  40  60  40  60
ASD  78  88  77  89 /  60  50  20  50
MSY  78  88  77  90 /  50  50  20  50
GPT  79  87  78  88 /  70  40  20  40
PQL  77  87  76  88 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for LAZ040-050-058-
     060>062-064-066>070-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for MSZ080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

CAB



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