543
FXUS65 KLKN 081936
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1236 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over portions of central and northern Nevada through the
rest of the weekend with drier conditions expected Monday. Winds
will breezy with southwest to west winds developing tomorrow
afternoon. Higher wind gusts will originate from shower and
thunderstorm outflow winds. Temperatures will remain above normal
through next week in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Some clouds are moving
across portions of central Nevada this afternoon as well as
developing in northwest Nevada. Look for the clouds to stick
around shortly after sunset with partial clearing by the morning
hours Sunday. There will be isolated showers associated with some
of the clouds, expected mainly in northern Nevada near the Idaho
border. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

By Sunday and Sunday night, an upper trough axis will move into
California and will be just west of the state. Precipitable water
values are forecast to be around two-thirds to three-quarters of
an inch. Lifted indices are forecast to be slightly negative with
CAPE of about 300-600 J/kg, though higher values are expected to
be over northeast Elko county. Some of the storms in northern Elko
county could be strong with wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail.
Other locations will see isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, with isolated dry thunderstorms in
central Nevada during the afternoon. Highs will be in the 80s and
90s. Winds will be breezy in central Nevada with lighter winds in
northern Nevada. Look for light showers to continue across
northern Nevada during the overnight with skies becoming partly
cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

Model analysis are showing an off-cut-low forming and moving south
off the coast of western Mexico, leaving a slight upper level
ridge developing over the silver state as the low pressure system
is expected be far south to not bring any moisture, leaving the
long-term warm and dry.

Temperatures on Monday are expected to be cooler from the recent
weather system, putting the high temperatures into the 70s-80s in
northern Nevada and 80s to 90s for central Nevada. Low
temperatures also expected to be cooler in the lower 50s. Tuesday
through Thursday, as the upper level ridge moves over the state,
temperatures are expected to gradually rise, with highs on Tuesday
in the 80s-90s with the next two days having high temperatures
into the 90s throughout much of the region. Low temperatures also
expected to get warmer, but stay in the upper 50s to low 60s each
night. Winds expected to be calm below 10 mph on Monday and
Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to have breezy
winds from the isentropic pattern caused by the off-cut-low to the
south, leaving westerly/southwesterly winds at 10-25 mph on
Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, the winds are expected to come from
a southerly direction at 10-20 mph as the off-cut-low is expected
to begin to move northeast towards the four corners by late
Thursday.

Friday and Saturday, the ensemble models are showing the off-cut-
low shifting towards the four corners and another low pressure
system from the northwest moves in behind it, however there is low
confidence as to whether this system could bring the potential of
more weather activity. This next system is being closely monitored
as the days approach. Temperatures are expected to slightly cool,
with highs in the 80s-90s, and the cold front from the northwest
could drop temperatures even further into the 70s by Saturday.
Winds expected to be breezy from a westerly direction at 10-15
mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals, -SHRA and
VCTS conditions expected at KEKO and KELY this evening, with VRB
20 kts gust 40 kts from convective activities of passing storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Persistent above normal temperatures are expected to
increase remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and Sunday will mostly be limited in
rainfall so a significant rain on snow situation is not expected.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage in the next several days.

Jarbidge River is expected to remain in action stage over the
next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/97/97