Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
049 FXUS65 KLKN 222120 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 220 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Active pattern continues thru Saturday with increased probability of precipitation Friday and Saturday. Pattern shifts Sunday as an upper ridge begins to build over the intermountain west. Fair weather and quickly warming temperatures are expected the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Upper trof and attendant cold front continue to progress east and out of the forecast area tonight with a cooler air mass moving into northern Nevada. Concurrently, showers and thunderstorms will taper off across northern Nevada this evening and tonight with strong winds also diminishing. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to upper 30s across the forecast area. Dry weather expected Thursday and Thursday night as weaker northwesterly flow turns westerly ahead of the next upper disturbance. Weather will be fair yet cool with generally light northerly winds gusting 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows mostly in the 30s. && .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday. An upper trough is expected to move into the region Friday with an additional, stronger upper-low moving into the Great Basin Region by Saturday. This is expected to bring increased chances for showers into central Nevada late Friday with more widespread showers and gusty west-northwest winds accompanying a diffuse cold front for Saturday. Thunderstorms across much of eastern Nevada are also expected Saturday. Model guidance continues to show a stronger precipitation signal with much of ELko county and White Pine county having a 30% or greater chance of reaching or exceeding wetting rains of one tenth of an inch or more from late Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will remain cool, rising mainly into the upper 60s Friday before dropping around 5 degrees Saturday for the northern portions of the state. Lows Friday morning will be quite cold, in the lower 30s across much of northeastern Nevada with a mix of 30s and 40s by Saturday morning as cloud cover increases across the area. High confidence exists for dry condtions early next week as a ridge builds over the area beginning Sunday. Winds will be fairly light through Tuesday but southwest winds will increase by midweek with troughing slowly working its way back into the the PacNW. Temperatures will rise accordingly with a building ridge pattern with highs into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals. There will be mid and upper-level cloud cover across much of northern Nevada tonight but ceilings will remain above 3000 feet AGL. Gusty west to northwest winds will be the primary impact at TAF sites through up to 06Z this evening. KEKO is AMD not SKED due to communication issue. && .HYDROLOGY...As high elevation spring snowmelt continues, many streams and creeks coming off snow covered terrain will experience elevated flows. This weeks cooler temperatures have slowed the rate of snowmelt, however elevated flows persist. Late this weekend and into next week as warmer temperatures return, expect flows on many creeks and rivers to rise again, possibly up into action stage. Wildhorse Reservoir is in action stage. Recent cooler temperatures are allowing the reservoir level to gradually lower, however the level is expected to remain in action stage all week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/93/93/93