882
FXUS65 KLKN 050953
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
253 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered snow and graupel showers along with a few
thunderstorms are expected across northeastern Nevada today as
a low pressure system moves over the great basin region. Another
upper-level disturbance will bring enhanced snow shower activity
across northeastern Nevada tonight into Monday morning but only
the Ruby Mountains and mountains in northern Elko county will be
materially affected. Lingering light snow showers will
diminishing Tuesday night across northeastern Nevada with a warmup
and drier conditions moving into the region for the latter part
of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night

Another round of snow and likely convective graupel showers are
expected today as the upper-level low moves directly over the
state. This will provide some instability with isolated
thunderstorms across portions and central and north-central Nevada
this afternoon. Winds will be elevated once again today but with
lower speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph.

A brief break in showers is expected Monday morning as lows drop
into the 20s and 30s. Gusty winds continue for mainly northeastern
Nevada Monday. Another upper-level disturbance is expected to
bring widespread snow showers to northeastern Nevada Monday and
Monday night. The winter weather advisory for the Ruby Mountains
and northern Elko county mountains has been extended into early
Tuesday morning to account for the impacts from the snow. MOre
than a foot of additional snow is possible in mountains but
valleys amounts will be less than one half of a inch so impacts in
valleys will diminished.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Broad long wave trof resides over much of the western U.S. and
northern plains Tuesday with strong northwesterly flow over
Nevada. Boundary keeps a low probability of showers and possibly
thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada during the day with
activity dissipating overnight. Latter half of the week will be
defined by generally fair weather and warming temperatures as
ridging influences the western U.S. Afternoon breezes should also
be expected. Upper ridge is likely as alluded to, but the upper
pattern is indicated by numerical guidance to be somewhat chaotic
nonetheless with a cut off low possibly residing in proximity to
the Great Basin. This feature brings low probabilities for
precipitation next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers across the region this morning with
conditions dropping to MVFR or lower in any more moderate showers
as an upper level low settles in over NV. Lighter snow showers
linger through the day before tapering off later this evening and
overnight. Weak instability sets up across much of the region this
afternoon, with a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms at KBAM and KEKO
through the early evening hours.

Westerly winds are expected to increase in the mid to late
morning hours, and remain gusty into the early evening hours. Most
terminals will have westerly gusts in the 20-25kt range. The
exception will be KTPH where northwesterly winds will gust in the
30-40kt range most of the day.

KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks,
and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal snow melt.
Widespread rain and mountain snow have occurred, tonight, and
tomorrow. The recent rainfall will increase flows on many streams
and rivers over the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage while gradually decreasing for
the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days
while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into
action stage mid week.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage.
The river is expected to remain steady in action stage for the
the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday ABOVE 6500 FEET in
Northern Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday Ruby Mountains and
East Humboldt Range.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon PDT today ABOVE 6500 FEET in
White Pine County.

&&

$$

93/92/92/93