Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
967 FXUS65 KLKN 252012 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 112 PM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms associated with a departing weather disturbance will exit the state to the east by tonight. Ridging building back over the region Sunday and Monday will allow for warmer temperatures and lighter winds. A weak weather features will bring some showers and thunderstorms to mostly far northern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures in the 80s by Tuesday will moderate back down into the 70s for the latter part of the week under dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night Isolated convective showers will diminish and move eastward across northeastern Nevada through this evening. Primary threat with the stronger thunderstorms will be cloud to ground lightning and gusty outflow winds with rainfall limited to a few hundredths of an inch or below. Modest west winds of 10-20 mph will dwindle as well through the evening hours. A drier air mass will bring quieter weather to the region tonight through Sunday night. Lighter winds and mostly clear skies are expected Sunday with temperatures rising into the 70s for highs. Lows tonight will be cold in the mid 30s with some isolated areas of freezing temperatures in favored valleys. The probability of 32F or below is highest across the northern mountains in Elko county (greater than 75%), Ruby Valley (50-60%) and Diamond Valley (30%). Lows Sunday night should be above freezing at all locations in the mid 30s to 40s. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Monday, the state is under weak ridging ahead of an approaching Pacific Northwest trough. Winds will be light and variable, becoming southwest and breezy across ridgetops and mountains of central Nevada. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area under mostly sunny skies. Lows at night will be in the 40s and 50s for most. Tuesday the Pacific Northwest trough begins to deepen, with its trough axis extending into Northern California and Southern Oregon. Nevada will see increasing clouds through the day, with isolated to scattered showers (15-35% chance) and isolated thunderstorms (5-15% chance) possible across portions of northern Elko county in northeast Nevada, as well as southern Idaho, and Northwestern Utah. The ridge departs later in the day Tuesday. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s for many. Wednesday the trough progresses eastward providing another trough of isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern parts of Humboldt and Elko counties. Highs cool off slightly across northern Nevada generally staying in the 70s, with 70s and isolated 80s across central Nevada. Night time lows will be a bit cooler in the upper 30s to to low 40s. With the trough progressing eastward, zonal flow filters in before a ridge builds in behind the departing trough. Dry conditions will return to all of Nevada. High temperatures will gradually warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Friday and Saturday next week. && .AVIATION...All terminals can expect gusty westerly winds this afternoon and early evening of generally 10-15kts gusting 20-25kts. VCSH at KELY with potential VCTS east of the airport will taper off after 00-03Z Dry conditions are then expected at all terminals afterwards. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will warm tomorrow and early next week and flows on many small creeks and streams are expected to again rise, possibly into action stage for some, such as Lamoille Creek. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter action stage early next week. Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/91/91/93