Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
881 FXUS65 KLKN 070415 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 915 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 901 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Warming Trend underway as high pressure builds across Nevada. * Critical fire weather conditions expected Monday for portions of Central Nevada with a Red Flag Warning in effect. * Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday for portions of Central Nevada with a Fire Weather Watch in effect. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Wednesday and Thursday. Heat returns for the weekend as highs reach the mid 90s to 100s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The fire weather watch on Monday July 7 from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT for fire weather zones 426 and 427 has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. South-southwesterly afternoon winds gusting around 30 mph will combine with afternoon relative humidity values around 10% or less to produce critical fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 124 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The main weather features to watch for the next week will be an upper trough situated off the west coast and a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the desert SW. This will leave Nevada under a dry southwesterly flow aloft with surface winds being dictated by how close the trough and ridge get. Models have been shifting a bit on the track of the upper trough, but do agree that round one of a warming trend peaking Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures look to rise into the low 90s to low 100s as night time low range in the low 50s to low 60s, which with the exception of West Wendover which will see lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The quick cooling of nighttime temperatures help midi-gate potential heat headlines for the first half of the week. As for the upper trough, models show that it will make little headway through Tuesday of next week. Models, however have been a bit back and forth on the timing and track of the upper trough as current runs are quicker to bring the trough onshore than yesterday, but with the track farther north across Idaho. What models agree on it it will increase the SW winds across central Nevada for Monday, and Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch in in effect for parts of central Nevada Monday and Tuesday afternoons as RH falls below 10%, and stronger SW winds of 15 to 25mph with gusts up to 35mph will be possible. Although not to likely as a possibility, have introduced a low 10% chance for some isolated dry thunderstorms for the far north along the OR/ID border as there may be enough spillover moisture to generate a few build-ups. Good news is this upper trough will finally depart the region by Thursday afternoon, having brought slightly cooler temps for the I-80 corridor and points north. The bad news is that after Thursday, models agree on re-building the ridge over the lower Colorado river valley stronger than it has been. This setup will bring even drier westerly flow aloft, slightly higher heights over Nevada, meaning slightly weaker afternoon winds, but even warmer temperatures will be possible over the area with highs reaching the mid 90s to 100s and a return to possible heat headlines for next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building in over the the Great Basin for the weekend trough the first half of next week leading to warmer temperatures and dry conditions. There is moderate to high confidence of near critical, to critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday afternoons across parts of central NV. Confidence is moderate to high that the upper level ridge will build back in over the great basin region, after the upper trough moves through Nevada Thursday. Leading to another warm-up for next weekend. The main deviation from the previous forecast was to increase winds and wind gusts for Monday, and Tuesday as models have had a low forecast bias, especially across central NV. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours. Afternoon gusts around 20KT appear possible at all sites but were only persistent enough for TAF inclusion at KWMC/KELY/KTPH. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions continue today with winds gusting around 20 mph. Fire weather conditions look to intensify to start the week, with a Red Flag Warning now in place for zones 426/7 on Monday and a fire weather watch in effect for zones 425/6/7 Tuesday due to winds gusting over 30 mph and single digit min RHs. Conditions remain near- critical for Wednesday but current guidance indicates winds dropping back below critical threshold. Conditions look to remain elevated through the end of the forecast, but winds look to remain well below that critical threshold from Thursday on. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening NVZ425>427. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday NVZ426-427. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...84