985
FXUS65 KLKN 291935
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1235 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated light showers will dissipate this evening.
Northwest flow tomorrow will bring partly to mostly sunny skies
and dry weather to the region. Look for mainly dry conditions for
the rest of the week as temperatures begin a slow warm up into the
80s into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Light, isolated
showers have popped up across extreme eastern Nevada this
afternoon along the Utah border. This is due in part to a weak
upper trough moving over the area. These small pockets of activity
will continue through the rest of the afternoon and early evening
before dissipating. Look for the skies to scatter out with
overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

For Thursday and Thursday night, a northwest flow will develop
during this time with slowing rising heights. Conditions are
expected to remain dry with northwest to west breezes in the
afternoon with some gusts to 20 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and
80s. Quiet and calm conditions will continue into the overnight
with lows in the 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday

Quiet weather will be in store for the silver state for the end
of meteorological Spring and the first few days of meteorological
Summer as the next chance of showers wont arrive until early
morning Tuesday June 4th. Until then the upper pattern will be
marked by relative flat zonal flow with heights slowly rising
signaling a slow warming trend for the weekend. As for Tuesday
morning a quick moving northern stream trough and associated cool
front will move through the Pacific NW, unfortunately models show
that this system will clip Nevada with a low chance, 10% to 30%,
of rain showers spreading across far northern Elko and Humboldt
counties overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, with the front
washing out over central NV Tuesday evening. Models then hint that
after Tuesday southern stream upper ridging will build in over
the region setting up the typical summertime heat dome. While this
is the favored solution for the ECMWF The GFS is not as bullish
on the upper ridge. The key feature deciding which scenario will
pan out will be a cut off upper low over Pacific ocean off the
coast of Baja California, as both model suites show this low, how
far east/strong his low is next week will dictate where the ridge
axis is. As of now the GFS is stronger and farther east with the
low and has a SW-NE trending ridge axis over New Mexico. The ECMWF
is the opposite with the low, and shows a SE-NW trending ridge
axis over the Silver State. Temperatures will range in the upper
70s to low 90s for the weekend and into next week for highs, as
overnight lows look to run into the mid 40s to mid 50s for most.
Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west with the
occasional bend to the NW, with light winds overnight, building to
breezy winds in the afternoon at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25
MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Thursday. Convective build-ups will continue Thursday
across eastern NV with a very low chance at a shower possible
along the UT/NV border but all NV terminals look to remain dry.
Any shower that does form will quickly end after sunset tonight
and Thursday. Light afternoon WNW winds of 5KT to 15KT with gusts
up to 25 KT possible across N NV. Winds for central NV terminals
KTPH, and KELY will be a bit stronger out of the NW at 10KT to
20KT with a few gusts up to 30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain
elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle
Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter
action stage later in the coming days.

Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next several days.

Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is
forecast to slowly fall below action stage later today.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

86/98/98