263
FXUS63 KLMK 110522
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
122 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Below normal temperatures and humidity through Tuesday.

* A warming trend with hot and dry conditions likely late this
  week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

No changes planned to the going forecast for tonight. Nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery continues to show stratocu
diminishing across the area, with the steady N wind starting to
slacken. Drier dew points are noted upstream, including some values
in the 30s over central IN! Given the clearing skies, calm to light
and variable winds, and dew points dropping into the 40s for many in
our area, expect to see a pretty chilly night. Best chance for some
low and mid 40s min Ts will be across southern IN, with low 50s
expected mostly across KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Unseasonably mild and dry air continues to filter into the Ohio
Valley this afternoon as a reinforcing cold front has just dropped
south of the Ohio River. No precipitation associated with the front,
as the main sensible weather impacts are an extensive strato-cu deck
and a modest NNW wind surge with gusts around 20 to occasionally 25
mph.

Expect the fall-like conditions to persist through mid-evening as
the boundary layer will be a bit slower to decouple under cold
advection. We will still have clear skies and light winds by
midnight, but the dry air mass will limit overnight fog formation
mainly to river valleys and other low-lying areas in south-central
Kentucky.

Another cool day on Tuesday, with a slight rise in low-level
thicknesses offset by a less deeply mixed boundary layer. Afternoon
highs close to persistence across southern Kentucky, perhaps a
couple degrees warmer with more sunshine in southern Indiana and
north central Kentucky.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

A mostly weak, zonal pattern will be over the Ohio Valley at the
beginning of the long term period. Dry air will continue into the
late week, keeping dew points and PWATs lower than normal for mid-
June. With a gradually building ridge over most of the US,
temperatures will increase through the week. Starting the week off,
we saw 1000-850mb thicknesses in the upper 1300dm and temperatures
in the low-mid 70s. By the end of this week, we will see thicknesses
near 1420dm and temperatures in the upper 80s and 90 in some areas.


Friday and Friday Night...

A shortwave trough will ride along the periphery of the building
ridge and just brush the region. This system will send a cold front
through the Ohio Valley on Friday. While the front will lead to
increased lift and there will be some additional moisture out ahead
of this front, not much is expected to materialize. Could see
additional cloud coverage and about 10-20% PoPs.


Saturday - Sunday...

Ridging over the central CONUS will continue to build and shift to
the east. This will allow for temperatures to continue to rise. As
high pressure is over the region on Saturday, conditions will still
remain on the dry side with dew points in the low-mid 60s. By
Saturday night, high pressure is expected to shift to the east
bringing returned (and dreaded) moisture into the region. Sunday,
dew points are progged to be in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Temperatures will likely be in the 90s at this point, and result in
hot and muggy conditions.


Forecast Confidence... Guidance has a large spread in regards to
temperatures this week, with the ECMWF taking the high side and
weighting the NBM higher. With a large amount of rainfall within the
last few weeks, the region is quite green, and therefore, would take
a while for evapotranspiration to then result in baking. Have
decided to go with lower guidance for the forecast given green
conditions. In the later part of the week, there is more confidence
in higher temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period.  Light
northerly winds are expected overnight.  VFR conditions are expected
through the daytime hours with a light northeast wind.  The outlook
for tonight and Wednesday calls for VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM....SRM
AVIATION.....MJ