Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
619 FXUS63 KLMK 090531 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 131 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend, with extended breaks in the rain expected. Locally heavy downpours possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across western and southern Kentucky. * Temperatures will begin a warming trend Tuesday, with 90 degrees a possibility by late week, especially Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The forecast is on track this evening, and no changes planned at this time. Still focusing on a couple of separate features that will bring precipitation chances to the region overnight into tomorrow morning. The first is a cool frontal boundary that is currently stretching from northern IN, down through central IL, and into southern MO. This feature will continue advancing SE tonight, with surface convergence possibly enough of a trigger to maintain some isolated showers as it sinks into our area. Some models show a dry solution, others show some spotty coverage along the front. Will keep the slight chance going, but either way not impactful stuff. The second, and more interesting feature, is an ongoing convective complex over southern Missouri, that is expected to slowly slide ESE through the overnight. Our SW CWA remains the most likely area for the northern fringes of any convective activity to impact heading into tomorrow. However, could also see a convectively reinforced cold pool develop, which would likely take the bulk of the activity farther SW into TN. Like the going chance pops that cover this threat, and see no reason to change them at this time. Regardless of that complex, we`ll still have chances for some convection to pop across our south through the morning, until the cool frontal boundary mentioned above makes it all the way through the region. So, another reason to leave the chances going. Locally heavy downpours would be the main concern for tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Despite the radar returns across the region most of the day, abnormally dry air in the lower levels have evaporated most light rain before reaching the ground. Will continue to carry a low chance for light rain, but the latest ACARS data from SDF continues to show a rather dry airmass in the lowest 3km. For tonight, a mid-level wave will push a cold front into the lower Ohio Valley from the north. Weak forcing and convergence along the front may lead to some isolated light showers north of I-64 after midnight. However, even better moisture convergence and stronger forcing to our west will likely fire up convection across Missouri again tonight, moving to the east-southeast through the overnight hours. Still expecting the bulk of the convective cluster to track into central Tennessee in the early morning hours, but the northern flank of showers and embedded thunderstorms look to push through south-central KY. Moisture pooling along the boundary will help erode the low level dry air by tomorrow morning, which will follow by high PWATs possibly exceeding 1.8 inches. Soundings also show tall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy downpours and embedded thunder looks like a good bet for areas south of the Kentucky Parkways tomorrow morning. To the north, light to moderates showers will be possible, though those chances really fall off when you get north of I-64 due to the front sagging southward by the middle of the day. Eventually the cold will continue to surge south of our area by the evening, and will pull the precip chances to the south with it. While majority of the forecast area will see drier trends throughout the day, PoPs will linger the longest across south-central Kentucky. Eventually we`ll be precip free by the evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 First part of the week will be marked by a deep closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, with broad upper trofiness over the eastern CONUS. Northerly low-level flow will feed dry and cool (by almost mid-June standards) air into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Sfc high settles into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, but heights start to slowly rise by then as the upper flow flattens out. Still expect temps solidly below normal Monday and Tuesday, with highs barely cracking 80 on Tuesday and lows in the 50s through Tuesday night, even in the urban heat island of Louisville. Warming trend begins on Wednesday as we get into very weak return flow, but the Gulf doesn`t really open up yet. Temps could make a run at 90 on Thursday, but it`s more likely to be Friday before we see enough moisture return to support any convection. Look for more of a summer feel Friday and Saturday, even with a weak cold front dropping into Illinois and Indiana. Daytime highs will be close to 90 each day, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and diurnal slight chance POPs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 At 05Z a cold front was poised just north of the airports from central Ohio through southern Indiana to southeast Missouri. FROPA will occur at SDF and LEX this morning, resulting in a narrowing window for any chance of showers or storms. Model data and current radar/satellite support leaving rain out of the SDF/LEX TAFs, though an isolated shower can`t be completely ruled out. Showers are more likely at BWG given its position farther ahead of the front and convection present to the west that is sliding east-southeastward. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible just about anytime at BWG, but should be infrequent enough to leave out of the TAFs for now. Will continue to monitor. Models have been consistent bringing in some MVFR clouds this morning, especially at BWG. Some evidence of this can be seen upstream in central and southern Illinois at this hour. The front will pass through BWG by mid day on its way into Tennessee, suppressing convection to our south this afternoon. Skies will gradually clear from north to south this afternoon and evening, with high pressure over the northern Plains giving us light breezes tonight under mostly clear skies. Though some valley fog will be possible by dawn Monday, dry air moving in should prevent widespread fog. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BJS SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...13