781
FXUS63 KLMK 121217
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
817 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Above normal temperatures expected from Sunday and into
    next week. Rain chances may pick up early next week as
    southerly flow draws moisture northward from the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

We will remain mostly sunny with just some high clouds over the
region to start the day associated with a weak system over east TX
and a weak upper trough passing through the Great Lakes during the
early morning hours. Sfc high pressure will remain present over the
Ohio Valley with the center continuing to build eastward.This will
help to bring a weak return southerly flow as mid-level heights and
thickness beginning to increase over the region. Highs will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday with more locations getting into the
low/mid 80s. Dew points will also be a bit warmer but still fairly
comfortable in the mid 50s. This will also translate into mild
overnight under clear skies and lows in the mid/upper 50s and low
60s in urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Thursday through Saturday Night...

At the start of the period, we`ll see a trough axis moving through
the Great Lakes with another trough axis off the SE coast.  The
trough axis coming through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front
toward the region on late Thursday and into Friday.  The front will
weaken as it crosses the region on Friday, but enough convergence
along the front should produce at least isolated-scattered
convection across the region.  Overall highest chances of precip on
Friday looks to be across our eastern/northeastern sections.  A few
of those storms could be strong with gusty winds/lightning and
marginal hail being a threat.  Heights will then rapidly build as
we get into Saturday with temperatures expected to moderate rather
quickly.

Highs on Thursday will likely top out in the mid-upper 80s with
perhaps the urban heat islands hitting 90.  Overnight lows Thursday
night will be in the upper 60s.  Highs Friday will be similar to
Thursday with most spots in the upper 80s to near 90.  Overnight
lows Friday night will drop into the lower 60s across southern IN
and the northern half of Kentucky.  Southern KY may stay mild with
readings in the upper 60s. Highs Saturday will be slightly cooler
with mainly upper 80s in most locations, a few spots in southern KY
may get close to 90.

Sunday through Tuesday...

By Sunday, upper ridge axis will be over the region with mostly
sunny skies and increasingly hot conditions.  Temperature guidance
here has a bit more spread on Sunday with the GFS going with upper
80s and lower 90s while the Euro has temps in the mid-upper 90s. I`m
not overly confident in that temperatures will soar as high as the
Euro suggests.  Last summer, the Euro exhibited a warm bias in the
extended. In addition, we`re quite green across the area given the
rainfall from mid-late May, but we will be drying out a bit this
week.  For now, will cap temps in the lower 90s for highs. Overnight
lows Sunday night will be quite mild with lower 70s expected.

Going into Monday/Tuesday of next week, southerly flow will
transport decent moisture into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf, so
dewpoints will increase and we`ll be quite humid.  Model solutions
show quite the spread when it comes to potential rainfall.  The Euro
is quite dry and keeps temperatures in the mid-upper 90s.  On the
other hand, the GFS/GEFS and Canadian models are a bit more bullish
on diurnally driven convection breaking out within the
southerly/southwest flow pattern.  This results in cooler temp
forecasts from those two models.  Will use a blend of the models
here and keep temps mainly in the lower 90s for Mon/Tue along with a
20-30% PoP in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 816 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quiet weather forecast thanks to prolonged sfc high over most of the
eastern US. Just a few clouds but it will remain VFR with light and
variable winds through most of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BTN