Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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965 FXUS63 KLMK 290538 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 138 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather and below normal temperatures expected for most of the upcoming week. * Rain chances return for the weekend; severe weather is not expected at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Overall, it was a pleasant evening across the forecast area. Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity levels in the comfortable range. Did a have a few showers/storms cruise through Jefferson county, Indiana in the last hour. These are moving southeast and probably will hold together and hit portions of NE Scott/Harrison/Bourbon/Nicholas counties over the next hour to 90 min. Brief heavy rainfall and a few lightning strikes will be possible with that activity before it diminishes with the setting sun. Otherwise, the forecast for the overnight remains dry and mostly clear with lows in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Synoptically, upper level ridging resides over the Rockies, bookended by longwave troughing over each coast of the US. At the surface, broad high pressure is noted across the OH Valley. Current satellite shows a cumulus field well established across the region while KY Mesonet and local observations report current temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Winds continue to gust out of the west at 15-25 mph as the pressure tightens ahead of a shortwave, which is responsible for convection occurring over MN/WI. Expect dry conditions to prevail throughout the short term. Although CAMs are advertising isolated showers this afternoon, AMDAR soundings continue to reveal abundant dry air and a stable layer at around 730mb, which should cap any developing updrafts. Upstream convection should also weaken and dissipate by the time it arrives to our southern Indiana counties tonight as it enters into a less favorable environment. Winds will subside around sunset and back to WSW overnight. Temperatures will drop several degrees below climo tonight with morning mins in the mid 50s. Expect a cloudy start to Wednesday as wrap around stratocu advects over the CWA from the north. Winds are also expected to pick up again out of the NW with gusts around 20mph throughout the day. Lower heights aloft and cloud cover will suppress afternoon temps as well, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Sfc high pressure slowly working over the Great Lakes will be the main influence for our weather for the end of the week. Troughing aloft on Thursday will keep a northwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley keeping our temperatures pleasant with morning lows in the 50s and highs Thursday in the mid 70s. As highs pressure works eastward on Friday, ridging aloft will work over the Ohio Valley helping to warm temperatures into the upper 70s during the afternoon but with lows once again in the low 50s and even a few upper 40s, especially over the Bluegrass. Rain and storm chances increase for the weekend as an upper trough coming out of the Central Plains works eastward into the Ohio Valley. Sfc high will work off to the east Friday night this will allow for increase moisture flow out of the south to return to the Ohio Valley. Main focus for shower activity looks to be associated with a weak shortwave trough and associated vort max working across the area during the day on Saturday. There remains some model differences as the GFS wants to bring a weak sfc system associated with the shortwave while the EURO doesn`t develop the sfc low. Will keep about 40-50 percent PoPs for Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday and continuing the unsettled weather with rain/storms chances for early next week. With the return moist/southerly flow, it will also be more humid and warmer. Highs each day will be near or into the low 80s through Monday with potentially low/mid 80s by Tuesday. Lows will also be warmer and in the 60s from Sunday into Tuesday morning. Severe threat seems low with an overall lack of instability and even shear but enough for the occasional rumble of thunder with any development. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions appear likely for much of this TAF period. A shortwave trough will rotate southeast from the Chicago area across the Ohio Valley today. Northerly low-level flow will advect lower level clouds between 3-5 kft over southern IN and north-central KY by late morning. Expect SCT-BKN ceilings to linger through much of the afternoon, with less cloud cover across southern KY. NW winds will remain light through 12z, before gradually increasing mid to late morning. Gusts to 15-20 kts are likely late morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish once again with sunset. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...CRG LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...EBW