Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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978 FXUS66 KLOX 302121 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 221 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...30/136 PM. Very little change expected in most areas Friday and over the weekend, except likely increasing low clouds and fog along the Central Coast and cooler temperatures there. Temperatures will remain below normal for coast and valleys through the weekend while farther inland temperatures will cool to near normal. A warming trend is expected next week, especially inland Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...30/155 PM. The marine layer depth dropped last night as weak high pressure develops over the region. Onshore flow remains quite strong, however, and this combined with a weak coastal eddy is keeping temperatures below normal across coast and valleys with a seasonably stubborn marine layer near the beaches south of Pt Conception with some beaches staying cloudy through the afternoon. For tonight the main change will be that low clouds are expected to start pushing back north along the Central Coast leading to what likely will be some areas of dense fog there and a cooling trend Friday, especially near the coast. Otherwise, not a lot of noticeable change expected through the weekend. At upper levels a weak trough will pass through the area later Saturday into Sunday causing interior areas too cool a few degrees with some breezy afternoon winds. The marine layer will push slightly farther inland the next few days and take longer to clear off. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/220 PM. A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to set up shop next week along the West Coast all the way up into southern Canada. This will bring a warming trend to the area, but with the focus being interior areas that are far removed from the cooling effects of the still chilly Pacific Ocean. Monday won`t be much different from the weekend weather conditions, however starting Tuesday and going through at least Thursday temperatures will be on the rise, especially inland. Onshore flow, while still quite strong during the afternoon, will dip slightly Tuesday and Wednesday mornings which should be enough to bring at least a couple degrees of warming to coastal areas as well as earlier marine layer clearing. Valleys and other interior areas will warm up 3-6 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday, bring warmer valley highs close to 90 and the Antelope Valley around 100 or slightly higher by Wednesday. While these are the most likely high temperatures, there is still a 20% chance of highs close to 105 in the Antelope Valley and up to 95 in the warmest coastal valleys, pending how the upper level pattern evolves and how that impacts the strength of the onshore flow. Meanwhile, coastal areas are expected to top out in the upper 60s and 70s with some beaches still mired in marine layer stratus. && .AVIATION...30/1816Z. At 1728Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 C. Moderate confidence in desert TAF, moderate for others. There is a 20-30% chance that clouds will linger at KOXR, KCMA, and KSBA through the day. Timing of return of cigs may be off by +/-2 hours. Conds will be mostly IFR to LIFR, except possibly low MVFR in coastal sections of L.A. County, KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs will not clear until 22Z, and a 10% chance that cigs will persist all day. There is a 20% chance of LIFR cigs from 07Z-15Z tonight. No significant east wind expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs don`t develop until 11Z Fri or after. && .MARINE...30/126 PM. Moderate confidence in forecast. In the outer waters, moderate and steep seas are at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels but are generally trending downwards. SCA level winds will overspread much of the waters this afternoon and evening. Winds and seas are likely (70% chance) to be below SCA level by late tonight. There is 30% chance of SCA level winds Friday and Friday night in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). SCA level winds/seas are likely (70-80% chance) much of the time Saturday through Monday. In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, SCA level NW winds are likely (60-70% chance) to continue through this afternoon and evening. SCA conditions are likely to drop off by late this evening, and stay below through Saturday morning. SCA level winds are likely (50-70%) chance during the afternoon/evening hours Saturday through Tuesday. In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds in western portion of the SBA Channel in the afternoon/evening hours today, and Saturday through Monday. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox