341
FXUS66 KLOX 091625
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
925 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/914 AM.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side today, except
for the Central Coast where there will be better clearing of
clouds. Then high pressure aloft will warm temperatures and
decrease onshore flow Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, night
through morning low clouds will continue across the coast and
valleys through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...09/924 AM.

***UPDATE***

Marine layer depth is around 3000-3500 feet across the LA Basin
and sloping down to around 2000 feet across SLO/SB Counties. It
was another damp morning in many areas due to drizzle from the
marine layer, though amounts were lower than yesterday. It`s going
to be another cool day across the area due to strong onshore flow
in place slow resulting in slow clearing of the low clouds. Highs
expected to be 5-10 degrees below normal. However, with earlier
clearing expected north of Pt Conception highs there are expected
to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.

***From Previous Discussion***

Regionwide, temperatures will trend upward Monday through
Tuesday, when the cutoff low stalls to the south. This will be
because of higher hights over the region and a general decrease in
onshore gradients, that will limit daytime cloud cover and
afternoon seabreezes. However the marine layer will still follow
June Gloom patterns each day, extending into the valleys in the
mornings and clinging to many coasts all day.

The afternoon LAX to DAG gradient is expected to remain strong
(despite the slight weakening) through at least Tuesday (between 7
to 9 MB), and will continue to fuel gusty southwesterly winds in
Antelope Valley and foothills.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...09/355 AM.

The cut-off low will remain in place Wednesday and much of
Thursday. Thursday evening through Friday the upper low will
travel eastward just south of the region. The low will heavily
influence temperatures, which will trend downward each day through
Thursday. Precipitable water anomalies are expected to be well
below normal when the low passes just south of the region, and
maximum vorticity will occur during the stable overnight hours. As
both these components limit the potential for precipitation,
stratiform rain or convective activity is unlikely.

Beginning Friday and continuing into Saturday, there is good
agreement among the models that a strengthening East Pac high
will bring a strong sfc gradient across, especially the coastal
waters. This would drive very strong northwest to north winds
across the region, including a significant Sundowner Wind event.
Additionally, temperatures are expected to trend upward and cloud
cover will trend downward due to the the shift to an northerly
offshore pattern, especially for areas like the deserts, Paso
Robles, and the Santa Barbara South Coast. Beyond Saturday, the
GFS and ECMWF both show indications that northerly winds and
temperatures will continue to increase into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1159Z.

At 1030Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5400 ft with a temperature of 20 degrees C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence TAFs for coastal and valley sites. Timing of
flight category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 25
percent chc that coastal sites with no clearing fcst may see a
few hours of afternoon clearing. Cigs may be 1 flight cat lower
than fcst late tonight and Monday morning.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 25 percent
chance of no clearing. There is a 20 percent chc of OVC008 conds
aft 10Z Mon. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chance
of cigs remaining AOA 010. There is a 20 percent chc of VFR conds
developing by 18Z and a 30 percent chc by 19Z. There is a 25
percent chc of OVC008 conds aft 10Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...09/739 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast.

For the Outer Waters, there is high confidence of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds through early Monday, then winds and
seas remain below SCA levels between Monday and Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is high confidence of
SCA level winds this afternoon and evening, then winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels between late Sunday night and
Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 30-40
percent chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon and
evening across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone
      673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Rorke/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox