453
FXUS66 KLOX 051120
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
420 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...05/226 AM.

High pressure over the region will continue the warming trend
through today, most pronounced away from the coast. The marine
layer will continue to bring some night through morning low clouds
to the coastal and valley areas. well above normal temperatures
will continue across the interior valleys for much of this week.
Closer to the coast, high temperatures will be moderated by the
marine layer and moderate to strong onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...05/256 AM.

Today will be the warmest day of the next 7. Offshore trends will
lead to a weaker seabreeze, hgts will will approach 590 dam and
subsidence aloft will all combine to bring warmer conditions to
the area. Most areas will warm with the exception of the Central
Coast where an earlier sea breeze will knock off 2 or 3 degrees
from ydy`s readings. The marine layer will greatly temper the
coastal warming which will only be a degree or two. Further away
from the coast the vlys will warm 3 to 6 degrees where max temps
will end up in the 80s and lower 90s. The mtns and far interior
(which will be unaffected by the sea breeze) will see the
greatest warming of 5 to 10 degrees. This warming will bring max
temps up into the triple figures and will end up 15 to 20 degrees
above normal.

Dangerous heat will occur in the far interior both today and
Thursday. Heat Advisories continue for the I-14/Acton area of the
LA mountains, the Cuyama Valley, the interior San Luis Obispo
County including the Paso Robles area. An Excessive Heat Warning
also continues for the Antelope Valley. The heat can have
significant impacts on anyone, but sensitive groups like the very
young or old and those with prolonged exposure outside are
particularly vulnerable to heat impacts. If possible, take steps
to limit exposure from the heat by taking breaks inside with air
conditioning or by finding shade and also drinking plenty of
water.

The ridge weakens a little on Thursday but not enough to cool the
interior where the heat advisories and warnings will continue. The
coasts and vlys will cool as a ~2mb onshore trend will bring a
stronger and earlier sea breeze. Just enough mid level moisture
will arrive from the south to warrant around a 15 percent chance
of showers or thunderstorms over the higher mountains in Los
Angeles, Ventura, and perhaps Santa Barbara County.

The ridge will weaken further on Friday and the onshore
gradients will continue to increase. In fact the onshore push to
the east may hit 10 mb. This will keep the morning low clouds
stuck to the west facing beaches. There may be advisory level wind
gusts across the western Antelope Vly foothills as well. Max
temps will cool 3 to 6 degrees across the board. This will cool
the interior to about 8 degrees above normal, while the coasts and
vlys will return to normal day time highs.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...05/315 AM.

The ensembles are all in decent agreement for the weekend forecast
and there is good confidence that a June Gloom pattern will occur.
A saggy baggy trof will be overhead and an east pac sfc high will
bring strong onshore flow to the area. Look for the night through
morning low cloud pattern to extend all the way to the coastal
slopes with slower than normal clear and no clearing at many west
facing beaches. There will be gusty winds each afternoon across
the interior and esp the western Antelope Vly. Temps will cool
some each day more so on Sunday when hgts fall some.

The ensembles diverge for Monday and Tuesday. The EC ensembles
favor a decent cut off low over or near to the state while most
GFS members favor a weaker and morn westward system. For now will
lean the forecast towards the GFS soln as it makes more
climatological sense. Look for a persistence night through morning
cloud pattern with slightly below normal coastal temps and
slightly above normal temps across the mtns and far interior.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1120Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 2900 ft with a temperature of 28 Celsius.

Low clouds and fog were widespread in all coastal areas S of Pt
Conception, and have pushed into the valleys, except for the Santa
Clarita Valley and the far interior valleys of VTU County. Low
clouds were surging northward around Pt. Conception, and will
likely affect the Central Coast this morning. Conds were mostly
IFR-LIFR, except locally VLIFR in the valleys/foothills, and on
the Central Coast. Skies should clear by mid to late morning in
the valleys and by noon on the coastal plain, except early
afternoon near the beaches. Clouds could linger at some beaches
thru the day. Expect a similar low cloud pattern night, except
more widespread on the Central Coast, and also pushing into the
Santa Ynez Valley. Conds will be mostly IFR-LIFR, except possibly
low MVFR in coastal sections of L.A. County.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20-30%
chance that cigs will linger until 20Z or 21Z. There is a 20%
that cigs tonight will not arrive until 05Z or 06Z. High
confidence in any east winds staying below 8 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20-30%
chance that cigs will scatter out as early as 15Z. There is a
20-30% chance that cigs will arrive as early as 06Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...05/404 AM.

In the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and
seas will continue at times in the northern zone (PZZ670) thru
this eve. In the central zone (PZZ673), seas should drop below
SCA levels this morning. Otherwise, SCA conds are not forecast
thru Sun. However, seas will near SCA levels in the northern two
zones (PZZ670/673) tonight thru Thu night, and there is a 20%
chance that a SCA will be needed. There is a 30% chance of SCA
level winds late Sat thru Sun, especially in the northern zones.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, the SBA Channel, and the
southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru Sun. SE
winds are expected each night/morning S of Pt Conception, locally
exceeding 15 kt near islands and channels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8
      PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-343-344-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 AM this
      morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox