Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
191 FXUS61 KLWX 110036 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 836 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain north of the region through Friday. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday, then another front may drop southward toward the area Sunday. This cold front tracks through the region early next week before stalling off to the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Very little development in terms of convection this evening, and the few showers that have tried to develop didn`t get very intense. While a few showers may still be possible, particularly across central VA into southern MD, that chance is quickly dropping. The warm and humid air mass over the region currently will continue into the overnight hours with forecast low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, slightly cooler from the Blue Ridge westward. Given light winds and a moist low-level troposphere, patchy fog may become a bit more widespread overnight. Areas more vulnerable to dense fog could see some more significant visibility reductions at times. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The synoptic pattern and its weak gradients remain a fixture in the forecast ahead. Behind a rather weak trough, mid/upper heights will slowly rise in time on Friday into Saturday. This results in an uptick in temperatures with daily highs pushing into the upper 80s to low 90s. For mid-July climatology, those are fairly typical for the time of year. With persistent dew points topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s, ample instability will trigger diurnally-forced showers and thunderstorms. The latest suite of high-resolution models do not show too great of convective coverage. This is likely owing to a lack of meaningful forcing and rising heights aloft. In this case, convection may be more tied to the terrain and mesoscale boundaries (i.e., bay/river breezes). The current Storm Prediction Center outlook maintains a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge. Heading into Friday night, little change is expected from the previous night. An active summertime pattern continues into the first half of the weekend. Convective chances do go up on Saturday with afternoon/evening probabilities around 40 to 60 percent. While diurnal heating and terrain circulations will likely work their magic in convective initiation, it remains to be seen where forcing aloft and previous convective complexes act on renewed development. Forecast high temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Seasonable conditions persist into the overnight hours with mild temperatures on tap. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summer pattern will continue for the foreseeable picture with no big fronts to scour out the low-level moisture. A sharp mid- level trough is fcst to traverse the area Monday afternoon and enhance the thunderstorm potential. This trough will likely bring a threat of more widespread t-storms and the risk of scattered severe t-storms Monday. After Monday, the trough axis will shift east with upper level ridging building to the NW, likely causing a sharp decrease in t-storm coverage. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above average, especially at night. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For tonight, calm winds and moist conditions will favor patchy fog development across the area. MVFR conditions are shown for most terminals, but with IFR conditions at KCHO and KMRB. This should eventually burn off an hour or two after sunrise on Friday. For Friday into Saturday, while conditions will be mainly VFR, convective chances each afternoon/evening could certainly lead to some restrictions. Probabilities are a bit higher on Saturday regarding thunderstorm chances. Gradients remain rather weak, but winds should mainly have a south to southeasterly component to them. Numerous to widespread t-storms, some possibly severe Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... No marine hazards are expected for the remainder of this evening through the first half of Friday. Over the next several days, thunderstorm chances go up, particularly by Saturday. Thus, there is some threat for Special Marine Warnings, particularly for the stronger cells. Sub-SCA conditions likely through much of the CWF 5-day fcst period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Over the course of the next few days, water levels slowly become more elevated in time given persistent southerly winds. This carries some of the more sensitive locations into Action stage (i.e., Annapolis and Baltimore), particularly during the higher of the two astronomical high tide cycles. The Stevens Ensemble system supports this gradual uptick in anomalies into the weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BRO NEAR TERM...BRO/CJL SHORT TERM...BRO LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...LFR/BRO/CJL MARINE...LFR/BRO/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO/LFR