642
FXUS61 KLWX 011856
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will slide offshore tonight into early Sunday
morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday into
Monday as a quick moving low pressure system passes through. Dry
conditions briefly return with high pressure Tuesday before
shower and thunderstorm chances increase with a series of fronts
mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Thickening cirrus tonight with mid-level clouds moving in on
Sunday. Warmer tonight with lows a little above climo in the low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A weakening shortwave-trough will approach the area Sunday
afternoon triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly west of Route 15. Activity spreads east
toward the metros Sunday evening. Severe t-storms are not
expected due to weak shear and weak lapse rates. Shower activity
should wane quickly after midnight Sunday night.

Monday could still see isolated showers and/or t-storms due to
lingering moisture and sfc trof nearby. Drying out Monday night
into Tue as mid-level ridging builds in. Temps will remain close
to normal through the first half of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Brief high pressure and weak upper level ridging will settle back
over the region Tuesday. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary associated
with the area of low pressure from earlier in the week will stall
across southwest and eastern VA. The front will eventually become
parallel with fairly zonal upper level flow aloft yielding
additional shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in areas west of
the Blue Ridge and south of the I-64 corridor Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The bulk of Tuesday should remain dry given the weakened
influence of high pressure overhead. Highs Tuesday will remain in
the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will fall back
into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s as low level moisture returns.

06Z and 12z synoptic and ensemble guidance continue to show
varying solutions in regards to the change in weather pattern
heading into mid to late next week. A potent upper level trough
will gradually dive south into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region Wednesday with a strong cold front cutting east through
the Ohio River Valley and a warm front lifting north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. The 06z GFS is a bit drier while the 00z
ECMWF is wetter. Both solutions seem to hold the warm front off
until late Wednesday with the cold front set to cross Thursday
into Friday. This will yield an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Any organized convection looks to hold off until
Thursday and Friday. CSU Learning probabilities and CIPS
analogues highlight this period as the best opportunity for low
end severe weather risks. This is something we`ll continue to
monitor in the coming days ahead.

Beyond this point, models diverge a bit more in regards to Friday
and the weekend. This is due in part to model solutions trying to
resolve if the upper level trough associated with the incumbent cold
front cuts off as it moves into the Great Lakes region. This could
lead to lingering spotty shower and thunderstorm activity Friday
into the start of the weekend. Temperatures will remain at or above
average through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Sunday morning.
Winds will remain light and variable out of the south as high
pressure gradually pushes offshore. Skies will remain mostly sunny
with high cirrus passing through. More widespread mid and high level
cloud cover returns late tonight into Sunday morning.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday with high pressure just offshore.
A slight chance for a few thunderstorms is possible mainly at
terminals along and west of a line from KMRB down to KCHO. Some
restrictions are possible in and around any thunderstorm activity
that may form.

Prevailing VFR conditions on Monday and Tuesday as weak upper level
ridging builds back over the region. Winds will turn back to the
north Monday and southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday. Any
thunderstorm activity will be fairly sparse and confined to
terminals west of the Blue Ridge.

Higher chances for more widespread restrictions from
shower and thunderstorm activity are possible during the afternoon
and evening hours Wednesday through Friday as multiple pieces of
shortwave energy and a series of fronts push through.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA level winds return to the southern waters of the bay and
lower tidal Potomac late this evening into Sunday morning.
Winds will fall back below SCA levels Sunday afternoon. Spotty
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to the bay
breeze Sunday afternoon/evening. Cannot completely rule out the
need for a Special Marine Warning for any strong storms that
cross the waters during the period.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms moving over the waters during the afternoon and
evening hours could bring stronger gusts especially on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Special Marine Warnings cannot be ruled out
during this period.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST