188
FXUS64 KLZK 081650 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Cloud cover and precip have kept temps from warming much if at all
across portions of central to NRN AR so far. As a result...have
increased POPs late this morning lingering into the early
afternoon hrs across central to NRN/NERN sections before
convection should dissipate. As a result of this cloud
cover/precip...will lower temps across NRN and portions of central
AR for this afternoon. Otherwise...no major changes in the near
term forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sfc high pressure was centered to the south and east of AR early
this mrng, allowing for a light S/SE wind flow over the state.
Predawn readings were mainly in the 70s. Meanwhile, cont to monitor
a complex of storms moving into southern MO. CAMS cont to show that
some of this activity wl affect northern AR towards daybreak, with
an expected weakening trend later this morning.

As the aforementioned convection winds down later this mrng, a
remnant outflow bndry is expected to sag southward towards central
AR. While support is limited to provide a focus for organized
convection, a few storms (<20%) could form along the bndry this
aftn. With limited confidence, have not included a mention in the
fcst attm.

Meanwhile, south winds wl cont to increase acrs the FA today,
allowing high temps to top out in the lower and mid 90s at most
locations. Combined with increasing RH levels, aftn heat indices
will climb well into the 90s. Cannot rule out some locations apchg
the century mark, mainly along the AR River valley.

For the remainder of the weekend, NW flow aloft wl persist over the
Mid-South. Additional rounds of convection are progged to form as a
series of SWT`s traverse the region. Current thoughts are that the
highest PoPs wl rmn concentrated over the north half of the FA Sun
and Sun night. Cannot rule of a few strong/severe storms, with
damaging winds the main threat. Repeated rounds of storms acrs the
same general area also raises the concern for flash flooding potential.
Wl cont to monitor rainfall trends ovr the next 12 to 24 hours for
the possibility of any headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The long term fcst begins in the wake of a cdfrnt fm the weekend.
Most guidance indicates the frnt should be moving acrs Srn AR
towards the Gulf Coast region on Mon mrng, w/ lingering precip along
the leading edge of the frnt. Thru the day Mon, Nrly sfc winds wl
usher in drier air, w/ humidity levels tapering down, and afternoon
high temps trending towards more seasonal values.

Dry condns, seasonal temps, and lower humidity readings should
prevail thru at least early Wed, before broad sfc high pressure
begins to drift Ewrd over Appalachia, and Srly sfc flow resumes over
the Srn Plains. A subtle H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to
develop over the OK/TX panhandle... possibly a convectively enhanced
or sourced upper level vorticity max... and maneuver thru weak upper
background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For
now, low chc PoPs may be seen around the FA, particularly over Wrn
to S/Wrn AR.

Otherwise, intermittent low-chc PoPs and relatively dry condns are
expected thru the remainder of next week, and Srly flow wl yield
incrsg temps and humidity levels acrs the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Convection continues to develop and move over central and portions
of NRN AR late this morning...with some mention of this continuing
for a couple more hrs or so before improving conditions will
return. Mainly dry VFR conditions are expected into the evening
hrs...but chances for convection look to return across NRN AR late
tonight into Sun morning...and possibly Sun morning across
central sections as a new cold front drops south into the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  72  82  62 /  80  40  50  20
Camden AR         93  72  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       87  70  76  58 /  80  40  60  30
Hot Springs AR    92  72  93  66 /  20   0  20  20
Little Rock   AR  91  74  92  68 /  40  10  30  20
Monticello AR     92  74  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      92  72  92  66 /  20  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  88  70  76  59 /  80  50  60  20
Newport AR        87  72  83  64 /  40  40  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     90  74  93  68 /  10  10  20  10
Russellville AR   90  72  90  66 /  40  10  40  20
Searcy AR         87  72  87  65 /  30  20  30  20
Stuttgart AR      89  74  90  67 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...62