521
FXUS64 KLZK 241939
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

We were not able to complete a 12Z radiosonde launch today due to
lightning at the station, so an 18Z flight had to suffice. Sounding
revaled no surprises, with about 3200 j/kg CAPE in place, along with
a cap. Several clusters of thunderstorms have been trying to develop
this afternoon in the western portions of the forecast area. Storms
have managed to develop quickly and appeared to approach severe
limits at times, but with a lack of shear the convective cells were
not able to intensify and sustain themselves despite the significant
elevated instability in place.

For the third night in a row, additional convective development is
expected. Further bolstering convection tonight will be a weak front
dropping down into NW Arkansas, which should make it`s way into
central AR by morning. The front should retreat back to the north
during the day, and should result in drier weather during the
daytime hours tomorrow...at least for most areas.

I am anticipating another round of nocturnal storms Saturday
night...although these will probably remain primarily across the
northern portions of the forecast area. Sunday looks to be dry
across most of the area, with the exception of the northeast where
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An upper ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico to begin the long
term period with southwest flow over Arkansas and an upper low over
the norhtern U.S. The upper low will move across the Great Lakes and
Midwest Monday. Another upper low moves through the Great Lakes
Tuesday as the flow aloft over Arkansas becomes northwest. An upper
ridge develops over the Rockies Wednesday and moves into the Plains
Thursday and Friday.

A cold front will be northwest of Arkansas Sunday night, and will
move through the state early Monday with showers and thunderstorms.
Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in for Monday
evening should there be some left over instability. Weak high
pressure builds into the area Tuesday through Thursday. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected during the day
Wednesday and Thursday as short waves move through the state.  A
warm front approaches from the south Friday and with moisture
returning, a chance of showers and thunderstorms has been included.
Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  85  73  88 /  60  10  20  30
Camden AR         68  89  71  91 /  60  20   0  10
Harrison AR       61  83  70  88 /  40   0  30  20
Hot Springs AR    67  88  72  90 /  70  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  70  89  74  91 /  60  10  10  20
Monticello AR     71  90  74  92 /  50  30   0  10
Mount Ida AR      66  87  71  90 /  60  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  63  83  71  89 /  50  10  30  20
Newport AR        69  86  73  90 /  60  10  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     70  89  73  91 /  60  20   0  10
Russellville AR   67  87  72  90 /  50  10  20  10
Searcy AR         67  87  72  90 /  70  20  10  20
Stuttgart AR      71  88  74  90 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....51