325
FXUS64 KLZK 272336
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate generally
mostly clear conditions across the forecast area.  Observed
temperatures were averaging 5-10 degrees above normal for late May.

Expect the upper flow over north America to amplify during this
period, allowing for a northwest flow pattern to develop over the
mid south. Expect several disturbances to travel towards the
forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday through this northwest flow.
Several periods of precipitation are forecast in association with
these disturbances, mainly to affect southwest and western sections
of the forecast area.  Widespread heavy rain and severe potential
are expected to be limited in the forecast area, with the focus of
strong convection expected to occur to the west and south of the
state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In a very broad sense, large scale upper level ridging will be in
control of the weather pattern across the central CONtinental United
States (CONUS) from Wednesday night through Saturday. However, the
higher amplitude ridge axis sits well off to our north in between
two stout upper level low pressure systems during this period. In
the base of the ridge axis, low amplitude flow aloft that is more or
less westerly during the period will allow weak upper level
disturbances to move over the state Wednesday night and again on
Friday. Because the primary drivers of cyclogenesis and
anticyclogenesis lie well off to the north, the wind field around
each of these weak upper level disturbances is expected to remain
somewhat dampened which should serve to keep the severe weather
threat quite low despite the decent chance for thunderstorms in the
forecast throughout this time period.

In the absence of a stronger surface cyclone to our west, weak
southerly winds will bring some moisture/humidity back across the
state from mid to late week, however dew points are "only" expected
to climb into the lower to mid 60s, allowing overnight lows to fall
to these same temperatures each night. With temperatures approaching
the dew point each night, expect that some patchy dense fog will be
possible each morning Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

We will begin to warm up starting on Sunday as a much stronger upper
level disturbance moves south from British Columbia towards the four
corners region of the CONUS Sunday night into Monday morning. This
should bring some relatively strong surface cyclogenesis over the
central high plains Sunday night, causing low-level southerly winds
to pick up bringing deeper Gulf moisture up across Arkansas. This
will cause dew points to once again climb above 70 degrees resulting
in overnight/morning lows starting off 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
the previous several days. The stronger wind field and deeper
moisture could also lead to the possibility of more severe weather
across Arkansas maybe late on Monday or into early Tuesday,
depending on when the upper low moves east towards the state. The
trough is progged to approach Arkansas as positively tilted, so
don`t expect an outbreak or anything at this time, but definitely
something to keep an eye on in the forecast in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Skies will be clear overnight with sfc winds diminishing. Mid and
high level clouds wl increase fm the west on Tue. Cannot rule out
some stray showers in the NW Tue aftn, with VCSH included at some
locations, although confidence rmns low.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...44