Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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158 FXUS64 KLZK 271718 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1218 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A much needed pattern change is in store for the short term period. Calm and dry conditions are expected through much of the period as high pressure takes over the weather pattern. A cold front is currently situated over over southern Arkansas and will continue to push towards the southeast. This front has pushed the showers and thunderstorms out of the CWA leading to dry and calm conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night for southwestern locations as a disturbance pushes across the Gulf Coast. The chance for severe weather appears to be low at this time. Temperatures will be on the warmer side through the short term with some relief in the long term period. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the state with overnight low temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The period will begin with NWrly flow aloft across much of the Cntrl CONUS thanks to a Ewrd propagating ridge near the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will be in place across the Mid/Nrn MS Valleys. Clockwise flow around this area of high pressure will advect cooler and drier air into the region, via Nrly winds. Drier and cooler air will remain entrenched across portions of the state through midweek, maybe even late week over N/NE/E AR, however moisture will begin to creep back into SW AR as early as the start of the period. The upper pattern may become more zonal heading into the weekend time frame. A parade of upper level disturbances are expected to traverse background NWrly flow at intermittent intervals through the period. This should allow for the development of convective complexes with some of these upper level impulses, resulting in potential MCS`s to develop and propagate SEwrd across portions of the state, along a pronounced NW to SE situated theta E gradient. Damaging straight- line winds would be the primary hazards with any of these thunderstorms. The question remains, where does this theta E gradient set up exactly, and this will help narrow down the corridor of greatest rain chances. At this time, highest PoP chances will be over W and SW AR in closer proximity to the aforementioned gradient. Temperatures through the period would be in the upper 70s to upper 80s for highs and upper 50s and upper 60s for lows. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail during this period. A northwest surface flow will also prevail at 8-12kts through 00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 63 87 62 / 0 0 10 0 Camden AR 92 65 89 65 / 0 0 10 20 Harrison AR 84 61 82 58 / 0 10 20 10 Hot Springs AR 92 65 89 65 / 0 0 20 20 Little Rock AR 91 66 89 65 / 0 0 10 10 Monticello AR 92 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 91 63 87 63 / 0 10 20 20 Mountain Home AR 85 61 84 58 / 0 0 10 0 Newport AR 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 66 89 66 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 90 63 88 63 / 0 0 20 10 Searcy AR 89 63 88 62 / 0 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 90 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...55