Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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406 FXUS64 KLZK 270524 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1224 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Main concern during this forecast period is the severe weather potential during the first period. Recent objective analyses indicate an explosive atmospheric condition prevailing across the forecast area. Values derived from 18z sounding are supportive of all thunderstorm hazards. However, a substantial cap exists. Overall forcing of the atmospheric column currently is weak. Recent CAM runs suggest forcing along cold front, now approaching from eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma, will be required to initiate convection. In this scenario, the severe weather potential would exit between 00z and 08z in the LZK forecast warning area. A subjectively analyzed boundary, likely connectively enhanced from earlier activity in northeast sections of the forecast area, will be a particularly dangerous area for severe potential late this afternoon and evening, Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the period, although above normal afternoon temperatures will continue. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The period will begin with surface high pressure building into the area, resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures. Northerly winds will gradually become NE and then E as the high slides off to the east, and eventually a return flow will develop in the Fri- Sat time frame, bringing warm and moist air back to the state. In the meantime, several upper level disturbances will ripple thru the northwesterly flow aloft, bringing chances for precipitation. I anticipate that a number of nocturnal MCS`s may affect the area, moving NW-SE thru the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The cold front continues to move through central Arkansas. Thunderstorms are located just ahead of the front. Expect these storms to move south and east as the front pushes through. Storms should be out of southeast Arkansas between 9Z and 10Z. High pressure and drier air will build into the state behind the front. Monday will be dry during the day. MVFR conditions are expected south early...then VFR conditions are anticipated for the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 64 87 62 / 0 0 10 10 Camden AR 92 65 89 65 / 0 10 10 20 Harrison AR 83 60 83 58 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 92 65 89 64 / 0 0 10 30 Little Rock AR 91 67 89 66 / 0 0 10 20 Monticello AR 93 67 90 67 / 0 0 10 20 Mount Ida AR 91 63 88 63 / 0 0 20 30 Mountain Home AR 85 60 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 87 65 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 10 20 Russellville AR 89 62 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 Searcy AR 89 63 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 Stuttgart AR 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...51