Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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045 FXUS64 KLZK 262010 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 310 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Main concern during this forecast period is the severe weather potential during the first period. Recent objective analyses indicate an explosive atmospheric condition prevailing across the forecast area. Values derived from 18z sounding are supportive of all thunderstorm hazards. However, a substantial cap exists. Overall forcing of the atmospheric column currently is weak. Recent CAM runs suggest forcing along cold front, now approaching from eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma, will be required to initiate convection. In this scenario, the severe weather potential would exit between 00z and 08z in the LZK forecast warning area. A subjectively analyzed boundary, likely connectively enhanced from earlier activity in northeast sections of the forecast area, will be a particularly dangerous area for severe potential late this afternoon and evening, Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the period, although above normal afternoon temperatures will continue. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The period will begin with surface high pressure building into the area, resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures. Northerly winds will gradually become NE and then E as the high slides off to the east, and eventually a return flow will develop in the Fri- Sat time frame, bringing warm and moist air back to the state. In the meantime, several upper level disturbances will ripple thru the northwesterly flow aloft, bringing chances for precipitation. I anticipate that a number of nocturnal MCS`s may affect the area, moving NW-SE thru the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through a good portion of the period as TSRA/SHRA are expected to move across northern terminals later tonight. By sunrise tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will have pushed out of the state with a break in the unsettled weather until Sunday afternoon/evening. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible with storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 87 64 87 / 30 0 0 10 Camden AR 69 92 65 89 / 40 0 10 10 Harrison AR 63 83 60 83 / 30 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 67 92 65 89 / 20 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 70 91 67 89 / 30 0 0 10 Monticello AR 71 93 67 90 / 50 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 66 91 63 88 / 20 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 64 85 60 85 / 30 0 0 10 Newport AR 69 87 65 88 / 40 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 70 91 66 90 / 50 0 0 10 Russellville AR 66 89 62 88 / 20 0 0 10 Searcy AR 67 89 63 88 / 30 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 71 90 67 89 / 40 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...55