Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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706 FXUS64 KLZK 221102 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 602 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term period as several shortwaves push through the area. Continued shower/thunderstorms development is expected through the early morning hours Wednesday. Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to pop-up and move out of Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible with these storms. Unsettled weather is expected to continue into Thursday with coverage of storms limited as well as the chance for severe weather on the lower side. With that said, some storms could still be strong to severe. CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Many locations across the state should prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday night with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will be the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s. with overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An active pattern will continue into the long term period as SW/W flow continues through the weekend. Multiple upper level disturbances will move over AR in this flow aloft...with continued chances for convection nearly each day into Memorial Day. A more significant upper wave will move over the region Sat into Sun...with some increased potential for convection and possible SVR Wx over the weekend. Ample instability is forecast with this system that a few SVR storms will be possible. However...details on the overall SVR threat and storm evolution are too uncertain to discuss details this far out in time as they`ll be highly dependent on mesoscale features. Some threat for heavy rainfall will also be seen given several rounds of rainfall possible. Even so...the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall is also uncertain at this time to warrant placing any Flash Flood watches in the long term period. A larger scale pattern shift looks to develop late in the forecast as an upper level closed low develops over the Great Lakes Region. This will send a strong cold front SE through the region by Monday into Tuesday...bringing cooler and drier air to the state. Chances for rainfall decrease...with temps dropping back to near or below normal levels. Dewpts will also drop to more comfortable levels by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Additional SHRA/TSRA moving in from eastern OK affecting all terminals Thursday morning through the end of this TAF period. There is some uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms therefore VCTS/VCSH has been written into TAFs for second round. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through much of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 81 66 82 67 / 70 80 70 70 Camden AR 85 67 86 68 / 70 60 30 40 Harrison AR 75 62 80 65 / 70 60 50 60 Hot Springs AR 83 66 85 67 / 80 80 50 60 Little Rock AR 84 69 85 69 / 70 80 60 70 Monticello AR 87 70 87 70 / 60 60 40 40 Mount Ida AR 83 64 83 66 / 80 80 50 70 Mountain Home AR 78 63 80 65 / 70 70 50 60 Newport AR 83 67 83 68 / 70 70 70 70 Pine Bluff AR 85 69 86 69 / 70 70 50 50 Russellville AR 82 66 84 67 / 80 80 50 70 Searcy AR 83 66 83 67 / 80 70 60 70 Stuttgart AR 85 69 85 70 / 80 80 60 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...73