720
FXUS64 KLZK 232323 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
623 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Earlier convection has left a rather complex surface pattern across
the state, with a number of pockets of low clouds mixed in with
clear patches. I suspect a number of residual outflow boundaries
remaining in place, although they are difficult to pinpoint. Arkansas
will remain in the warm sector tonight with considerable amounts
of moisture in place. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will continue,
with several minor shortwaves propagating to the northeast thru
the flow.

Another round of convection is expected overnight, which should
stabilize the atmosphere. Heading into tomorrow, the models are
forecasting considerable destabilization in the warm sector by
the afternoon hours, with afternoon CAPE values topping out
between 3500-4000 j/kg. However, there are a couple of issues with
that.

First, it`s difficult to determine how much overnight convection may
foul the atmosphere with low clouds and regions of highly stabilized
air. This will put a damper on the model forecasts of high
instability, at least in places. Also, the higher instability values
are all elevated, and a considerable cap may be in place across much
of the area. This will likely put a damper on some of the
convection tomorrow despite the model forecasts of high
instability.

At the surface, a cold front will be pushing out of the Plains into
the northwest part of the state tomorrow evening, and this will
likely act as a trigger for another round of overnight convection,
as the front slides into central Arkansas by Saturday morning and
stalls. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning may see quite a bit
of convection, and potentially heavy rainfall associated with the
front.

The key takeaway from this forecast is that there is high
confidence that several rounds of strong (possibly severe)
convection across the state thru the short term. The timing of
these systems is of considerably lower confidence. More than
likely, the bulk of the strongest thunderstorm activity will be
nocturnal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

An upper ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico to begin the long
term period with southwest flow over Arkansas and an upper low over
the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. An upper ridge then builds
over the western U.S. Monday night and brings northwest flow to
Arkansas Tuesday which continues through Thursday.

A cold front will be in the Plains Sunday and move through Arkansas
Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the
thunderstorms could be severe Sunday with large hail and
damaging winds. Small rain chances continue on Monday and a couple
of dry days begin on Tuesday with high pressure settling over the
region. A cold front will approach from the north late Wednesday and
a bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Near to
above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Most locations are seeing VFR conditions but expect things to
deteriorate overnight as cigs lower and some vsby reductions
occur. Winds will remain generally out of the south, to around 10
kts at times. Confidence in precip and timing remains low. Expect
some rain and storms to develop through the period, with perhaps
the greatest coverage early Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  84  67  87 /  40  50  50  20
Camden AR         67  89  69  89 /  60  10  40  10
Harrison AR       65  83  63  84 /  30  40  30  10
Hot Springs AR    66  86  68  87 /  70  30  60  20
Little Rock   AR  69  88  70  89 /  60  50  60  20
Monticello AR     69  90  71  90 /  60  20  50  30
Mount Ida AR      66  85  67  87 /  70  20  50  10
Mountain Home AR  66  82  64  84 /  30  50  30  10
Newport AR        68  85  69  86 /  40  50  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     68  89  70  89 /  70  40  60  30
Russellville AR   67  86  68  87 /  50  30  40  10
Searcy AR         66  86  67  87 /  60  60  60  20
Stuttgart AR      69  87  70  87 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...67