163
FXUS64 KLZK 080836
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
336 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sfc high pressure was centered to the south and east of AR early
this mrng, allowing for a light S/SE wind flow over the state.
Predawn readings were mainly in the 70s. Meanwhile, cont to monitor
a complex of storms moving into southern MO. CAMS cont to show that
some of this activity wl affect northern AR towards daybreak, with
an expected weakening trend later this morning.

As the aforementioned convection winds down later this mrng, a
remnant outflow bndry is expected to sag southward towards central
AR. While support is limited to provide a focus for organized
convection, a few storms (<20%) could form along the bndry this
aftn. With limited confidence, have not included a mention in the
fcst attm.

Meanwhile, south winds wl cont to increase acrs the FA today,
allowing high temps to top out in the lower and mid 90s at most
locations. Combined with increasing RH levels, aftn heat indices
will climb well into the 90s. Cannot rule out some locations apchg
the century mark, mainly along the AR River valley.

For the remainder of the weekend, NW flow aloft wl persist over the
Mid-South. Additional rounds of convection are progged to form as a
series of SWT`s traverse the region. Current thoughts are that the
highest PoPs wl rmn concentrated over the north half of the FA Sun
and Sun night. Cannot rule of a few strong/severe storms, with
damaging winds the main threat. Repeated rounds of storms acrs the
same general area also raises the concern for flash flooding potential.
Wl cont to monitor rainfall trends ovr the next 12 to 24 hours for
the possibility of any headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The long term fcst begins in the wake of a cdfrnt fm the weekend.
Most guidance indicates the frnt should be moving acrs Srn AR
towards the Gulf Coast region on Mon mrng, w/ lingering precip along
the leading edge of the frnt. Thru the day Mon, Nrly sfc winds wl
usher in drier air, w/ humidity levels tapering down, and afternoon
high temps trending towards more seasonal values.

Dry condns, seasonal temps, and lower humidity readings should
prevail thru at least early Wed, before broad sfc high pressure
begins to drift Ewrd over Appalachia, and Srly sfc flow resumes over
the Srn Plains. A subtle H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to
develop over the OK/TX panhandle... possibly a convectively enhanced
or sourced upper level vorticity max... and maneuver thru weak upper
background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For
now, low chc PoPs may be seen around the FA, particularly over Wrn
to S/Wrn AR.

Otherwise, intermittent low-chc PoPs and relatively dry condns are
expected thru the remainder of next week, and Srly flow wl yield
incrsg temps and humidity levels acrs the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Wl cont to monitor upstream convection that is expected to affect
portions of N AR later this mrng. Included TEMPO groups for brief
MVFR conds at KHRO and KBPK. Convection is expected to weaken
later Sat mrng, leaving a residual outflow bndry acrs the area.
Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail with S/SW winds increasing towards
midday, with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph, along with higher
gusts. Another round of convection could work into N AR late in
the PD, but confidence is low at this point to include in the
fcst.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  71  83  62 /  30  30  40  20
Camden AR         94  72  95  68 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       90  69  80  58 /  30  40  60  20
Hot Springs AR    94  72  94  66 /   0  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  94  74  92  67 /  10  10  20  20
Monticello AR     94  74  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      93  71  93  65 /  10  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  90  69  79  59 /  40  40  60  20
Newport AR        91  72  86  64 /  20  30  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  94  67 /   0  10  10  20
Russellville AR   95  72  91  65 /  20  10  30  20
Searcy AR         92  71  88  64 /  20  20  30  20
Stuttgart AR      93  74  91  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44