Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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106 FXUS64 KLZK 062319 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Mostly dry condition were ongoing across most of the area this Thu afternoon. Temps were in the 80s to low 90s so far...with highs expected a few more deg warmer by the peak heating of the afternoon. A new front was dropping south into the state early this afternoon...with scattered convection ongoing across SWRN into SRN MO...moving into NRN AR. Keep POPs mentioned this afternoon for NRN AR as a result of this scattered/isolated convection as it will remain possible during the daylight hrs. Once the sun sets...expect most if not all precip to dissipate with the loss of heating. The aforementioned front will continue dropping south this afternoon and through tonight...with SFC high pressure settling across the region by Fri morning. Drier air will settle across AR as a result...with some comfortably cool/dry conditions expected to start off Fri. Lows will drop into the 50s and 60s for most areas...though some lingering low 70s may remain across the SE. Highs on Fri will be cooler than expected today...with highs in the 80s to near 90. The dry air will keep heat index values near or maybe even below observed temps. The drier wx will continue into Fri night...with another cool comfortable night expected. SRLY flow will return for Sat...with moisture levels rebounding as a result. Flow aloft will be mainly zonal to NW by Sat afternoon...with a new front approaching from the north. An upper wave will move over NRN sections of the CWA by late Sat afternoon...with some increased POPs for convection forecast as a result. Central to SRN sections should remain generally dry. This will change beyond Fri afternoon in the early part of the long term period as the new front drops south into the state. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The extended term will begin with a cold front pushing its way into Arkansas from N-S. There will be a fairly good temperature gradient along the front, along with rainfall moving in along and behind it. Exactly how fast the front will traverse the state is still a bit uncertain in my mind. Most models bring the front into central AR around mid-afternoon. Temperatures behind the front, in rain-cooled air, will only top out in the 70`s. South of the front, readings above 90 will be the rule after midday. The front should take its time getting thru the state with a nearly parallel flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are going to linger across the state, and will likely clear out of the south on Monday afternoon. A shortwave approaching from the west will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the state late Monday into Tuesday. With some fair amounts of instability present south of the front on Sunday, I would not rule out an isolated severe storm or two...but a lack of wind shear affecting storm cell longevity should not allow anything too significant to develop. I am a little concerned about the potential for excessive rainfall, particularly across the north. However, that will ultimately depend on the speed of the front and any training storm cells. Ridging will start to take place over the area by Thursday, and temperatures should start climbing back up to the 90 degree mark in many areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conds will prevail through the period. A frontal boundary will continue working Swrd through the state tonight, switching winds to a more Nrly direction. On Fri, winds will gradually switch back to a E/SE although remain light, less than 10 kts expected. SKC will prevail at most terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 62 87 66 86 / 10 0 0 10 Camden AR 67 91 66 94 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 60 86 65 86 / 10 0 10 30 Hot Springs AR 67 89 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 68 89 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 70 89 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 66 89 66 92 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 87 65 85 / 20 0 10 30 Newport AR 63 87 66 87 / 10 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 68 89 67 93 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 66 89 66 92 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 64 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 88 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...70