Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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495 FXUS64 KLZK 112319 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 19z satellite and surface observations indicate scattered, mainly high clouds across the forecast area. Near normal temperatures prevailed. Regional satellite and radar data continue to indicate the progress of an MCS moving east over north Texas. CAM guidance suggests that thus system will stay to the southwest of the forecast area. A surface ridge of high pressure across the mid south will strengthen during this period. Also, a mid level ridge will build from the southwest. Together, these features are expected to impede precipitation development during this period. Heat stress conditions will rise during the period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 H500 ridging will be building east toward Arkansas from the SW US at the start of the period. Under the ridge, mostly dry conditions are expected, and hot temperatures are in the forecast through early next week. Moisture will slowly increase across the state with time. Much of the state except the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains will experience heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees on Sunday when the heat looks to peak. With daily high temperatures expected to top out in the upper 90s F each day from Fri-Sun across parts of the state, there is definitely some chance for a few locations to hit the century mark. Given the recent active pattern and widespread rainfall in many areas, it will be interesting to see how much sfc/soil conditions influence area T/Td values. Early next week, the ridge will wobble to the east. There is some indication that tropical moisture will head this way from the Gulf Coast on Monday. Temperatures will not be as hot, and there will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions, along with a light and variable surface flow will continue through this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 86 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 62 88 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 60 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 63 88 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 64 88 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 62 87 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 61 88 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 86 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 60 87 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 62 86 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 63 88 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 60 86 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 62 85 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...61