Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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498 FXUS64 KMAF 072151 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 451 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over Texas and New Mexico this afternoon, buttressed by a trough off the coast of Baja del Sur. This will result in highs ~ 8-10F above normal. Diurnal heating and upslope flow will hopefully develop convection out over the higher terrain this afternoon/tonight, bringing a little relief to drought- stricken areas there. Of course, this is a double-edged sword in that fire starts are possible as well, and this will need to be monitored for hot spots. Unfortunately, tonight looks to offer little respite from the heat. Lingering anvil cirrus and a 40+kt LLJ will retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight lows ~ 10-12F above normal. Saturday, although the ridge is forecast to shift to the Gulf coast, thicknesses won`t move much, and afternoon highs will look very similar to today...within a degree or so. Diurnally-driven orographic convection is once again anticipated, only this activity may edge a little farther out onto the plains with the shifting of the ridge to the coast. This will also allow the Baja trough to move inland, making it`s presence felt all the more here. Saturday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight, with the redevelopment of the LLJ and plenty of clouds to once again inhibit radiational cooling. Convection will diminish during the evening. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 We`ll have yet another scorcher on Sunday before a *brief* break from the heat arrives for Monday. The upper ridge responsible for this weekend`s heat slides over towards the Gulf Coast on Sunday, giving way to a trough set to meander through the southern Plains Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front is set to nose into the Permian Basin late on Sunday, and likely stall along or northeast of the Pecos into Monday. This could favor some precipitation chances beyond the typical diurnally-driven storms seen over the higher terrain and into the north-central Permian Basin for Monday. There still remains uncertainty in these rain chances though it will likely end up being scattered coverage of precipitation at best. Either way, added cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures at 850mb support a day of less-hot weather for Monday across the Basin, with highs refreshingly in the 80s to low 90s. Unfortunately, the upper ridge rebuilds with a vengeance Tuesday- Thursday and looks to maintain it`s grip through the end of the week. This sends temperatures right back into the upper 90s to low triple digits for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 100-110+ degree highs for Thursday into next weekend. After Monday`s system departs, precipitation chances once again return to an isolated storm or two possible each afternoon over the higher terrain. The classic summertime pattern is here folks. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 449 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. A 40+kt LLJ will keep winds gusty this evening, and elevated the rest of the night. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early afternoon Saturday, w/bases 6-14 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 73 104 73 101 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 74 99 75 103 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 75 102 75 104 / 0 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 71 94 72 91 / 20 20 20 20 Hobbs 71 102 71 98 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 62 96 61 96 / 20 40 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 76 106 75 104 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44