792
FXUS64 KMAF 071829
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over Texas and New Mexico
this afternoon, buttressed by a trough off the coast of Baja del Sur.
This will result in highs ~ 8-10F above normal.  Diurnal heating and
upslope flow will hopefully develop convection out over the higher
terrain this afternoon/tonight, bringing a little relief to drought-
stricken areas there.  Of course, this is a double-edged sword in
that fire starts are possible as well, and this will need to be
monitored for hot spots.

Unfortunately, tonight looks to offer little respite from the heat.
Lingering anvil cirrus and a 40+kt LLJ will retard radiational
cooling, keeping overnight lows ~ 10-12F above normal.

Saturday, although the ridge is forecast to shift to the Gulf coast,
thicknesses won`t move much, and afternoon highs will look very
similar to today...within a degree or so.  Diurnally-driven
orographic convection is once again anticipated, only this activity
may edge a little farther out onto the plains with the shifting of
the ridge to the coast.  This will also allow the Baja trough to
move inland, making it`s presence felt all the more here.

Saturday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight, with the
redevelopment of the LLJ and plenty of clouds to once again inhibit
radiational cooling. Convection will diminish during the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

We`ll have yet another scorcher on Sunday before a *brief* break
from the heat arrives for Monday. The upper ridge responsible for
this weekend`s heat slides over towards the Gulf Coast on Sunday,
giving way to a trough set to meander through the southern Plains
Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front is set to nose into
the Permian Basin late on Sunday, and likely stall along or
northeast of the Pecos into Monday. This could favor some
precipitation chances beyond the typical diurnally-driven storms
seen over the higher terrain and into the north-central Permian
Basin for Monday. There still remains uncertainty in these rain
chances though it will likely end up being scattered coverage of
precipitation at best. Either way, added cloud cover and slightly
cooler temperatures at 850mb support a day of less-hot weather for
Monday across the Basin, with highs refreshingly in the 80s to low
90s.

Unfortunately, the upper ridge rebuilds with a vengeance Tuesday-
Thursday and looks to maintain it`s grip through the end of the
week. This sends temperatures right back into the upper 90s to low
triple digits for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 100-110+
degree highs for Thursday into next weekend. After Monday`s system
departs, precipitation chances once again return to an isolated storm
or two possible each afternoon over the higher terrain. The classic
summertime pattern is here folks.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at
times. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field shortly,
as well as near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~ 4.5-9
kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 102  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 73 104  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   74  99  75 103 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            75 102  75 104 /   0  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           71  94  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                    71 102  71  98 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    62  96  61  96 /  20  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   76 100  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     76 106  75 104 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44