813
FXUS64 KMAF 060520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The "cold" front that moved through last night has stalled along the
Pecos River as expected. We were able to shave off a few degrees
from the very hot conditions we saw yesterday. Temperatures are
mostly in the low to mid 90s north of the front with close to 100
along the Pecos and Rio Grande. We are seeing some Cu developing
along over the mountains and intense heating and abundant moisture
could lead to an isolated storm or two this afternoon. We could also
see a storm along the front, but it should remain isolated. Other
than some gusty winds with the storms, severe weather is not
expected.

After a mild night, southeast winds return Thursday as will
widespread triple digit heat. Added low level moisture will keep
temperatures from getting too hot and we may avoid needing a Heat
Advisory for the Big Bend. Still, if you have plans to be outside
drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. Another
round of showers and storms is expected across the higher terrain
and adjacent plains Thursday afternoon. Coverage should be a little
higher due to better moisture and increased upslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Mid and upper ridging will center itself directly over the region
Friday and Saturday allowing for yet another couple of hot days.
Most locations outside of the higher terrain will see highs in the
100s. Showers and storms remain possible across the mountains as low
level moisture remains in place. While any rain is much appreciated
in these parts, lightning within very dry fuels will remain a
hazard for new fire starts.

The upper ridge quickly breaks down early next week as a strong
shortwave moves south into the Plains. This will bring a cold front
into the region as weak NW flow develops aloft. There is model
consensus in much cooler temperatures behind the front with highs
back into the 80s and a better chance of rain. Sunday looks to have
the best chance for storms, but this could change depending on the
timing of the front. Ridging looks to build back in later in the
week with temperatures heating back up and rain chances dwindling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR and east to southeast winds for all terminals through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 75 104  73 103 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   76 102  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            75 103  75 103 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           73  95  72  94 /  10  20  30  20
Hobbs                    71 100  71 101 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                    61  97  61  97 /  10  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     75 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     76 106  76 107 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91