526
FXUS64 KMAF 091136
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

After several seemingly copy-paste days with hot temperatures and
afternoon storms, we have one more today, though changes are on
the horizon by early this evening. It`s boundaries galore out
there this morning, with diminishing showers over southeastern and
eastern New Mexico as well as down toward the Big Bend, and a
decaying MCS over the Panhandle. Outflow pushing southward across
the South Plains will result in a northwesterly to northerly wind
shift this morning for northern areas, though temperatures will
only be slightly cooler. Highs are forecasted to reach the middle
90s north and across the mountain areas, and lower 100s elsewhere,
yielding another round of Heat Advisory conditions for the Davis
Mountains today, as well as across the Davis Mountains Foothills
and all of Brewster County. The hottest temperatures, per normal,
will be found along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, where highs
look to top out in the 110-111 degree range.

A cold front is progged to progress southward from the Panhandle
across the South Plains today, acting as a focus for thunderstorms
to our north. Concurrently, daytime heating will be enough to
foster thunderstorms across the higher terrain to the west and
southwest this afternoon in a substantially moist environment.
However given continued weak mid and upper level flow, storms are
likely to evolve into multicell clusters, their progression
governed by outflow boundary interactions. By late this afternoon
into early this evening, the aforementioned front will edge into
northern portions of the forecast area, which will allow for
additional thunderstorm development as well as serve as a focus
for storms to translate further eastward across the Permian Basin
this evening into tonight. The front`s presence will serve to
enhance shear, and given the approach of a southern stream
shortwave to the west, increasing ascent could yield a few strong
to marginally severe storms, capable of producing gusty winds and
hail. Unlike previous days, convective activity will persist
through the night, with chances increasing for most areas along
and north of I-10 through Monday morning as the front moves south.
In addition to the rain chances overnight, the front will also
foster cooler temperatures, with lows expected to dip into the
middle 60s for most, with lower 70s focused along the river
valleys.

Convective activity looks to continue into Monday morning, though
gradually wane and shift to eastern areas. In the wake of
tonight`s cold front, temperatures Monday will be substantially
cooler, and will be the coolest temperatures we see for the
duration of this forecast. Highs are progged to top out in the
middle to upper 80s for much of the Permian Basin, portions of
Southeast New Mexico, and across the mountains, with lower 90s
focused across southern areas and along the Pecos Valley, and
lower 100s along the Rio Grande. A trough moving across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will foster increased ascent
and steepening lapse rates in the post-frontal environment, and
as a result, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
entire region on Monday afternoon. While overall coverage remains
uncertain, a north-south oriented axis of instability on the order
of 1500-2000 J/kg will aid in storm development, with the
aforementioned steep lapse rates as well as around 30-35kt of
shear yielding potential for storms that develop to become strong
to severe. Once again, the primary threats will be hail and wind
gusts, though the location of the front as well as any remnant
outflow boundaries will largely dictate the favored areas for
storm development and propagation. Locally heavy rain will also be
possible, with precipitable water values around 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. For many, this will be the best chance of
rain in a while, with little additional rain in the forecast
thereafter.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Rain chances taper off from west to east Monday night as an upper
ridge and associated subsidence build into the area. Lows will be
above normal for mid June and mostly in the 60s, 70s along the
Pecos River and near the Rio Grande. Tuesday through Thursday
features a warming trend as the upper ridge intensifies.
Widespread 90s and triple digit readings along the Pecos River,
over the Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau, and near the
Rio Grande are expected. Any 80s will be confined to the
northeasternmost Permian Basin and higher elevations. Tuesday
night lows will be warmer than Monday night, with widespread 70s
and 60s only in northernmost Lea County, Permian Basin, and higher
elevations. Wednesday will be even warmer than Tuesday with
mostly triple digits readings, and 105+ degree readings over the
Reeves County Plains and along the Rio Grande. 90s will be
confined to the Western Low Rolling Plains and higher elevations.
Wednesday night lows are similar to Tuesday night, but even
warmer, with widespread mid 70s across the Permian Basin and mid
70s and above near the Rio Grande. Thursday is likely the warmest
day in the long term, with widespread highs 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, with 100s and above for most, 105+ degree readings all
along the Pecos River, over Reeves County Plains and into western
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, in lower elevations of
Culberson County, and along the Rio Grande. Thursday night lows
are similar to Wednesday night but warmer. Friday sees slightly
"cooler" temperatures but with widespread triple digit highs still
present, 90s limited to northern Lea County and Permian Basin and
higher elevations, continuing each day into Sunday. Lows likewise
only fall into the 70s for most Friday night, Saturday night, and
Sunday night, 60s in northern Lea County and Permian Basin as
well as higher elevations. Each day in the long term, subsidence
from the ridge limits storm chances, with primary forcing arising
from heating of elevated terrain. Main risk with any of these
storms will be fire starts from lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Somewhat variable winds this morning will shift to the to the
north/northeast by around 15Z-16Z at all but FST/PEQ, where
southwesterly to westerly winds are more likely, and MAF, where
winds will remain more easterly. Winds will remain elevated and
intermittently gusty through the period. A round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop around 21Z in the vicinity
of CNM, HOB, and INK, thus have included VCTS mention there, with
additional VCTS mention at other terminals as storms develop
eastward and southward through the evening and overnight. Erratic
gusty winds and lightning could accompany any storm, along with
MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions will prevail, with winds shifting to the east-northeast
areawide this evening through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  68  86  69 /  20  60  40  30
Carlsbad                100  67  91  68 /  20  40  30  20
Dryden                  103  73  93  72 /  10  10  30  20
Fort Stockton           104  70  91  70 /  10  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           93  64  85  65 /  10  30  30  10
Hobbs                    98  64  86  64 /  30  50  40  30
Marfa                    96  60  88  58 /  10  10  40  20
Midland Intl Airport    101  68  87  69 /  20  40  30  30
Odessa                  101  67  87  69 /  20  40  30  20
Wink                    104  70  92  71 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84