070
FXUS64 KMAF 082150
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted clear across Texas to
the Louisiana coast this afternoon, allowing the Baja trough to move
inland to the Gulf of California.  However, this is having nor
effect on afternoon highs, which should come in ~ 10F above normal.
Diurnally-driven orographic convection is trying to develop invof
the Davis Mountains, w/hi-res models expanding this over most of
the higher terrain by late afternoon, after which it will diminish
after sundown.  With any luck, the drought-stricken higher terrain
will get some much-needed rainfall.  Of course, the downside to this
will be fire starts from lightning, as what little fuels we have are
dry.

Tonight, despite a 35+ kt LLJ cranking up, convection will diminish
by 06Z.  This, and plenty of debris cloud will retard radiational
cooling, resulting in yet another unseasonably warm night of lows 10-
12F above normal.

Sunday, the Baja trough opens and moves to northern Chihuahua by 00Z
Monday.  To the northeast, a cold front will approach the CWA.  CAMs
develop convection during the afternoon along the front, and the
incoming Baja trough will only exacerbate this.  Steep mid-level
lapse rates will be in place for all but the northeast, and deep-
layer shear over the northeastern zones will render a severe threat.
The northern zones will also see a little cooling invof the front,
but for the rest of us, highs will be very similar to today`s, if
not a degree or so warmer with a little pre-frontal compressional
warming thrown into the mix.

Sunday night, the Baja trough moves through West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico.  Models develop a MCS just north of the CWA, driving the
front south to the border by 12Z Monday.  This will increase chances
of rain across the area, especially north.  60+F surface dewpoints
are expected as far west as the Guadalupes, increasing pwats to over
3 std devs above normal.  NAM forecast soundings increase pwat at
KMAF to 1.87" by 06Z Monday, which is well over the max of 1.53" and
mean of 1.01".  This will likely translate to locally heavy rainfall
northeast.  This rain, and the front, should bring a little relief
to the unseasonably warm nights of late, knocking at least 5F off of
tonight`s temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Monday has gradually trended a bit more interesting as we draw
closer in time to the day. An upper trough will be positioned
across northeastern New Mexico while a few notable boundaries will
be situated in our area. The first is a remnant outflow boundary
caused by Sunday`s convection with the other being the cold front
set to move through Sunday evening/overnight. It is still uncertain
whether these two boundaries will merger together or where they will
be positioned come Monday afternoon but this will largely dictates
how Monday shakes out. Overall, there will be modest instability
with the largest axis of CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) expected to set up
just south of the cold front where some moisture pooling occurs.
This paired with boundary interactions, diurnal heating, and some
synoptic aid from the nearby trough, should be enough to get a few
storms going. Any storms that form will have 30+ kts of bulk shear
to work on with some low-level directional shear as well (especially
near the boundaries). With this, nearly all modes of severe weather
will be possible, so this is surely something to keep an eye on over
the next day or so. Between the cold front, plus added cloud
cover/precipitation, Monday looks to be the "coolest" day of the
long term with highs largely in the upper 80s for the Permian Basin
and in the 90s/100s elsewhere.

Beyond Monday, the pattern re-settles back into a quieter setup with
northwesterly flow on Tuesday giving way to a building ridge set to
control our weather for the second half of the week. The main
highlight here is the rapid return of the heat for Tuesday, followed
by a steady warming trend that could have widespread 100-110+ degree
high temperatures for Thursday-Saturday with Thursday likely set to
be the hottest day of the week. While good low level moisture
remains in place through the week, the subsidence from the upper
ridging limits low storm chances to the elevated heat sources of the
Davis Mountains and western higher terrain each afternoon.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Convection is
possible this evening, but struggling, and chances are too low
for a mention. Tonight, a 35+ kt LLJ will keep winds elevated in
the east. An approaching front will begin backing winds in the
north, while driving a dryline east in the south, which will make
for some variable winds, especially KFST/KPEQ. A cu field is
anticipated north and east near the end of the forecast period,
w/bases 6-12 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 101  69  88 /   0  20  50  40
Carlsbad                 72 101  68  92 /  20  20  40  30
Dryden                   75 103  74  95 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Stockton            76 105  70  95 /  20  10  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           71  92  64  86 /  30  20  30  30
Hobbs                    70  99  64  88 /  20  30  60  40
Marfa                    62  97  59  93 /  30  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 101  69  88 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                   76 101  69  89 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                     75 106  71  94 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis
     Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44