420
FXUS64 KMAF 042314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Many places are well into the 90s and low 100s this afternoon and
will "only" cool down into the low to mid 70s tonight. A small bit
of relief is on the way for the Permian Basin across to near the
Pecos River Valley as a weak front moves through the area tonight.
Northeasterly flow behind the front will knock temperatures down a
couple to a few degrees. However, the Rio Grande Valley will still
reach well into the 100s and another heat advisory will likely be
needed across the Big Bend. The weakness of the ridge may allow
for a shower or two to develop over the higher terrain to the
west, but amounts will be low overall. Lows remain a few degrees
above normal heading into Wednesday night.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mid and upper ridging will be in full control of our overall weather
late this week. This will keep temperatures hot with most locations
in the 100s each afternoon through Saturday. It is likely more heat
products will be needed for areas south and west of the Pecos River.
While slightly cooler (mid 90s) in higher terrain, temperatures are
still well above normal. Even with the heat, moisture levels will be
on the increase late week and upslope flow will allow for scattered
showers and storms in the mountains and adjacent plains. QPF looks
light and lightning could allow for new fire starts given the very
dry fuels in this area.

Models indicate the upper ridge possibly breaking down early next
week and NW flow developing aloft across the area. While confidence
is low right now we could be looking at cooler temperatures and
more widespread rain chances sometime next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A weak cold front will
intrude upon the area overnight, w/fropa at KMAF/KHOB ~ 11Z, and
clearing KFST/KPEQ ~ 17Z. Forecast soundings suggest convective
temps will be reached late morning/early afternoon all terminals,
w/bases 6-13 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  97  70 102 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 71 100  71 103 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                   73 104  75 102 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            72 101  74 102 /   0  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           71  91  71  95 /   0  20  10  20
Hobbs                    68  96  66 101 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    63  96  61  96 /   0  10  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     71  97  71 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   72  98  72 102 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     71 102  73 105 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...44