Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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896 FXUS64 KMAF 202329 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 629 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Increased moisture is apparent on WV imagery over the Desert SW. This is associated with a southern-stream short wave trough, which moves northeast and passes to the north through tonight. This will break down the thermal ridge that has been situated over West Texas, tightening the pressure gradient and result in increased westerly downsloping flow Tuesday. However, offsetting the warming effect of the increased westerly winds, 850mb temperatures will decrease with breakdown of the thermal ridge, proximity of the trough, and increased lift allowing more clouds to develop, which will all limit diurnal heating. 850mb temperatures will be cooler than in the previous days, 27 degrees Celsius rather than the 31 to 32 degrees Celsius 850mb temperatures we`ve been seeing. Under sustained southerly flow and increased cloud cover reducing radiational cooling, lows tonight are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above average, mainly in the 60s everywhere aside from lower to mid 70s in the southeastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. Associated with this short wave will be a weak Pacific front moving south at the surface, and its passage will also contribute to cooler temperatures. Highs Tuesday will be cooler than on Monday and this weekend, but remain 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid May with upper 80s and 90s, 100s south of I-20 in the Stockton Plateau and near the Rio Grande, with hottest temperatures 105+ remaining confined to the Big Bend. Went with 1:1 blend of NBM and NBM 25th percentile to reflect trend in recent runs showing cooler temperatures Tuesday north of I-20. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lower Brewster County along the Rio Grande for Tuesday from 1 PM CDT to 7 PM CDT, where warmer temperatures as high as 111 persist given farther proximity from increased clouds, reduced 850mb temperatures associated with the short wave, and reduced impacts from the weak Pacific surface front farther south. With increased clouds continuing to limit radiational cooling, lows Tuesday night will continue to be above average. However, lows will fall into the upper to mid 50s across the northernmost SE NM plains in cooler air associated with CAA behind a southward moving cold front. This cold front will continue to make southward progress on Wednesday, with rain and thunder chances indicated over eastern parts of the Permian Basin into easternmost Stockton Plateau late Tuesday night. Rain chances will cover easternmost areas. More on this in the Long Term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Wednesday, an upper trough will move through SoCal, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Increasing westerlies will sharpen up a dryline over the eastern fringes of the CWA. Convection will be possible along/east of this feature, and sufficient deep-layer shear (50-70kts) and steep mid- level lapse rates (>= 7C/km) over the Western Low Rolling Plains suggests a few storms could be severe. Highs Wednesday should be unimpressive...~ 6-8F above normal. Thursday, the dryline persists in the northeast, leaving open a slight chance of convection over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Temperatures will be similar to Wednesday`s. Friday into next week, southwest flow aloft persists across the region. Models advertise plenty of shortwaves rumbling through the flow, but after Thursday, persistent westerlies and a negligible nocturnal LLJ will keep the dryline and any appreciable boundary layer moisture east of the area, leaving dry grids after Thursday. Highs will muddle through the extended above normal, but nothing like the current salubrious highs we`re experiencing at the moment. In fact, our warmest day in the extended looks to be Saturday, but highs will be only 7-9F above normal. Late Sunday night, long-range models bring a cold front into the area, but this doesn`t look strong enough to spoil Memorial Day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Southwest winds will shift from the northwest around 12Z behind a weak cold front. Winds shift back from the southwest later in the day as the front fizzles out. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Fire weather concerns remain low into next week. While single-digit minimum relative humidity is anticipated each day, critical 20-ft winds are expected to remain isolated at best. High ERCs and fire danger remain confined mostly to the rain-starved higher terrain west of the Pecos, promoting elevated to near-critical conditions there each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 98 70 96 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 68 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 70 100 70 101 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 91 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 59 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 96 70 96 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 73 96 70 96 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 68 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...10