798
FXUS64 KMAF 260904
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
404 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

WV imagery shows that the upper trough has passed through West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico, leaving zonal flow aloft in its wake.
stiff westerlies yesterday jacked up afternoon highs above what NBM
was portending, but thicknesses will come down a little today as
winds veer a little to the northwest.  This should result in highs
only 6-8F above normal behind a weak Pac front.  NBM continues to
lag on the cooler side of MOS, and we`ll stay above it.  That said,
continuing Heat Advisories will be need for lower Brewster County,
as well as Terrell. Widespread single digit relative humidity is
once again anticipated, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for
where this coincides with increased 20-ft winds.  See Fire Weather
Discussion below for more details.

Tonight, with the absence of a LLJ, under mostly clear skies, and
with very dry air in place, efficient radiational cooling will allow
overnight lows to cool to only 2-4F above normal.

Memorial Day, dirty, weak upper ridging sets in, increasing
thicknesses and bringing widespread triple digits back to the area
as westerlies increase a little.  Heat advisories will again be
warranted, only a little more widespread as highs plateau ~ 10F
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A bit of a pattern change comes Monday night into Tuesday as a
secondary surge of a back-door cold front plus convective outflow
from storms to our east Monday afternoon shoves much better low
level moisture well into our area. By 12z Tuesday, most models agree
that the dryline is shoved west of the TX-NM state line. How far
east the dryline mixes by the afternoon is a hot topic for Tuesday`s
forecast and the global models seem to over-mix the dryline into the
eastern Basin despite relatively weak westerlies aloft. The NAM
seems a little more realistic and only mixes the dryline to the west-
central Permian Basin. Ultimately, the dryline position could
dictate how far west any storms may form. While the axis of an
upper ridge stretches from northern Mexico through the Rockies, a
weak shortwave rounding this feature along with convergence along
the dryline could get some storms going. However, some capping is
a concern given the weak subsidence from the upper ridge. Once we
get within CAM range over the next 12-24 hours, these questions
of storm coverage will become less uncertain. Steep mid-level
lapse rates are contributing to a healthy amount of CAPE (3000+
J/kg east of the dryline) and modest shear is present (30- 40kts)
despite the weak flow aloft so should any storms get going, severe
weather is very possible. Stay tuned as details will become more
clear as we get a bit closer.

Another round of storms is possible once again on Wednesday though
a weak cold front/outflow moving in from the north could
complicate this setup. The dryline then looks to mix a bit
further east for Thurs/Fri and storm chances become limited to the
far eastern Permian Basin.

Temperatures stay on the warm side for most each afternoon
throughout the long term with highs in the 90s and into the 100s for
the river valleys. Wednesday could be the "coolest" day behind
the weak cold front and due to the afternoon storm chances for
the northern/eastern Permian Basin.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Little change to previous forecast. VFR conditions will prevail next
24 hours, with a few high clouds. Convective temps remain to high
for cu. Relatively light westerly flow will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The shortwave associated with yesterday`s strong winds in now well
downstream of us, however, a lingering jet remains stretched back
through West Texas and should keep winds somewhat elevated again
this afternoon, especially across the western high terrain. Very
poor moisture recovery in these areas is underway once again this
morning with afternoon humidity expected to fall to around 5
percent. The combination of winds and low humidity maintain an axis
of RFTIs of 7-8 from the Sacramento Foothills southward through the
Davis Mountains and adjacent plains. While relatively low fuel
density may limit large wildfire potential, the fuels in this area
are exceptionally dry (ERCs over the 97th percentile), thus have
issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon/evening.

For Monday, winds relax more though breezy conditions could
contribute to near-critical conditions in and around the Guadalupe
Mountains with poor recovery and very low humidity lingering
areawide. Some relief comes Monday night into Tuesday with easterly
flow bringing good moisture in west of the TX-NM state line.
Critical humidity still lingers west of the dryline each afternoon
but light winds keep a lid on fire concerns for the remainder of the
week. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along the dryline each
afternoon from Tuesday onward which could the potential for
lightning starts and gusty/erratic winds.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  62 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  61 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  106  71 106  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton           100  67 104  71 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           86  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    93  60  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    93  55  96  59 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     96  63 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  64 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  62 104  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower
     Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44