Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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321 FXUS64 KMAF 181900 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 WV imagery shows an weak, upper-level ridge in place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. This, as well as maximum insolation, is allowing for afternoon highs well above normal, perhaps retarded only a bit by increased soil moisture from rain earlier in the week. Tonight, the ridge moves east of the area, courtesy of a PacNW trough digging southeast, putting the area under southwest flow aloft. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will induce a 40+kt LLJ, keeping the boundary layer mixed, and overnight minimums ~ 6-8F above normal. Sunday, leeside troughing will increase surface winds across the area, adding a downslope warming component to the mix, and increasing thicknesses to provide the first day this spring of widespread triple-digits outside of the Rio Grande Valley. Afternoon highs should average ~ 12-14F above normal. This will result in marginal heat advisory conditions in the Davis Mountains/Chisos Basin, as well as lower Brewster County. Sunday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight as another 40+kt LLJ develops, keeping lows ~ 6-8F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 As upper level thermal ridging continues Monday through Wednesday, temperatures notably above average continue as well, with triple digit heat in Midland/Odessa arriving ahead of schedule compared to the usual start date of May 31. Monday looks to be the day with the highest heat risk for the entire area. Strong southerly surface flow will keep lows Monday night nearly 10 degrees above average and mostly in the 60s, with 70s over the Rio Grande, parts of the Stockton Plateau and into the southeastern Permian Basin. As a dryline that sharpened over the weekend continues to set up mostly east of the area, sunny skies will allow for ample diurnal heating considering the stronger solar radiation that occurs during this time of year. 850mb temperatures around 32 to 34 degrees Celsius translate to highs in the 100s for most Monday after the first 100 degree day for many on Sunday. Highs 105+ over the Trans Pecos and 110+ are expected for the Rio Grande, with only higher elevations and places east and west of the Pecos River in the SE NM plains remaining in the 90s. As a trough moves northeast from the Desert SW and passes to the north Monday night and Tuesday, the tightening pressure gradient leading to an increase in westerly downsloping flow maintains highs well above average ahead of a cold front on Wednesday. Increased clouds with the approaching trough limit radiational cooling and keep lows warmer than average and mostly in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday night and similarly Tuesday night. With Wednesday`s cold front, highs decrease but remain 5 to 10 degrees above average with widespread upper 80s and 90s, 100s along the Rio Grande, with lows mainly in the 60s, aside from 50s in the higher elevations, northern parts of SE NM plains, and 70s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures again warm into the end of the week as upper level ridging builds back in following the trough and cold front passage. Only Thursday presents the chance of rain, with a short wave moving through providing additional lift east of the dryline in cooler and more humid air behind the cold front. However, despite a few storms possible across the far eastern Permian Basin, we are still not expecting rainfall more than a few hundredths of an inch for next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a few cu this afternoon invof KMAF/KHOB, w/bases 8-9 kft AGL. Otherwise, CAVU conditions expected. Return flow will veer to southwest and become gusty near the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 100 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 68 104 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 67 104 67 104 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 99 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 55 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 101 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 68 102 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 105 64 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Chisos Basin- Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...44