896
FXUS64 KMAF 202329
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Increased moisture is apparent on WV imagery over the Desert SW.
This is associated with a southern-stream short wave trough, which
moves northeast and passes to the north through tonight. This will
break down the thermal ridge that has been situated over West Texas,
tightening the pressure gradient and result in increased westerly
downsloping flow Tuesday. However, offsetting the warming effect of
the increased westerly winds, 850mb temperatures will decrease with
breakdown of the thermal ridge, proximity of the trough, and
increased lift allowing more clouds to develop, which will all limit
diurnal heating. 850mb temperatures will be cooler than in the
previous days, 27 degrees Celsius rather than the 31 to 32 degrees
Celsius 850mb temperatures we`ve been seeing. Under sustained
southerly flow and increased cloud cover reducing radiational
cooling, lows tonight are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above
average, mainly in the 60s everywhere aside from lower to mid 70s in
the southeastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio
Grande. Associated with this short wave will be a weak Pacific front
moving south at the surface, and its passage will also contribute to
cooler temperatures. Highs Tuesday will be cooler than on Monday and
this weekend, but remain 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid May
with upper 80s and 90s, 100s south of I-20 in the Stockton Plateau
and near the Rio Grande, with hottest temperatures 105+ remaining
confined to the Big Bend. Went with 1:1 blend of NBM and NBM 25th
percentile to reflect trend in recent runs showing cooler
temperatures Tuesday north of I-20. A Heat Advisory is in effect for
Lower Brewster County along the Rio Grande for Tuesday from 1 PM CDT
to 7 PM CDT, where warmer temperatures as high as 111 persist given
farther proximity from increased clouds, reduced 850mb temperatures
associated with the short wave, and reduced impacts from the weak
Pacific surface front farther south. With increased clouds
continuing to limit radiational cooling, lows Tuesday night will
continue to be above average. However, lows will fall into the upper
to mid 50s across the northernmost SE NM plains in cooler air
associated with CAA behind a southward moving cold front. This cold
front will continue to make southward progress on Wednesday, with
rain and thunder chances indicated over eastern parts of the Permian
Basin into easternmost Stockton Plateau late Tuesday night. Rain
chances will cover easternmost areas. More on this in the Long Term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Wednesday, an upper trough will move through SoCal, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.
Increasing westerlies will sharpen up a dryline over the eastern
fringes of the CWA.  Convection will be possible along/east of this
feature, and sufficient deep-layer shear (50-70kts) and steep mid-
level lapse rates (>= 7C/km) over the Western Low Rolling Plains
suggests a few storms could be severe.  Highs Wednesday should be
unimpressive...~ 6-8F above normal.

Thursday, the dryline persists in the northeast, leaving open a
slight chance of convection over the Western Low Rolling Plains.
Temperatures will be similar to Wednesday`s.

Friday into next week, southwest flow aloft persists across the
region.  Models advertise plenty of shortwaves rumbling through the
flow, but after Thursday, persistent westerlies and a negligible
nocturnal LLJ will keep the dryline and any appreciable boundary
layer moisture east of the area, leaving dry grids after Thursday.
Highs will muddle through the extended above normal, but nothing
like the current salubrious highs we`re experiencing at the moment.
In fact, our warmest day in the extended looks to be Saturday, but
highs will be only 7-9F above normal.  Late Sunday night, long-range
models bring a cold front into the area, but this doesn`t look
strong enough to spoil Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Southwest winds
will shift from the northwest around 12Z behind a weak cold front.
Winds shift back from the southwest later in the day as the front
fizzles out.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low into next week.  While single-digit
minimum relative humidity is anticipated each day, critical 20-ft
winds are expected to remain isolated at best.  High ERCs and fire
danger remain confined mostly to the rain-starved higher terrain
west of the Pecos, promoting elevated to near-critical conditions
there each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  98  70  96 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 68  93  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 101  75 103 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            70 100  70 101 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  84  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    64  91  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  92  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  96  70  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   73  96  70  96 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     68  98  67  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for Lower Brewster
     County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10