199
FXUS64 KMAF 231111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Quieter weather the next two days as temperatures rebound to the
upper 90s/low 100s with zonal flow aloft and clearing skies. Very
dry westerly flow will once again usher in critically low humidity
this afternoon, possibly as low as 2 percent, which will combine
with gusty winds to create critical fire weather conditions across
the west. A Red Flag Warning is in effect...more information can be
found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. The downsloping west
winds should also push temperatures as high as 110+ along the Rio
Grande and 95+ in the higher terrain across the south, so a Heat
Advisory is in effect for these areas. On Friday, models continue to
try to push a cold front down into Texas on the heels of an upper
level trough moving from the Dakotas up into Canada. If the front
does manage to get here Friday morning, similar to Wednesday, it
will stall out likely somewhere in the Permian Basin, and quickly
mix out in the afternoon as strong warm westerly flow wins out. With
the uncertainty of the front for Friday, have let NBM ride for
afternoon highs, which look to be mainly in the mid to upper 90s,
100s along the Rio Grande, and possible 80s/low 90s for the far
northern portions of the CWA. With dry westerly flow persisting,
precipitation chances are nil for the short term.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A hot weekend will transition to cooler temperatures next week as we
see a pattern change. Deep westerly flow will continue with slightly
stronger downslope flow forecast for Saturday. Very dry air along
with gusty winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions,
especially in the higher terrain. In addition to the fire weather
concerns, excessive heat will continue across the Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos where more Heat Advisories are likely. Sunday will be
similar although with less wind and a few degrees shaved off high
temperatures.

Bigger changes take place Monday as a strong shortwave moves across
the Plains and drags a cold front through the area. Confidence is
low regarding the front as some models have gone back and forth on
timing. NBM has been consistent in bringing highs back down to
normal behind the front. Return flow commences Tuesday helping to
bring Gulf moisture back into the region. A dryline will set up
against the higher terrain much of next week with periodic
disturbances providing an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
It`s too early to tell which days will be more active with regards
to convection, but given we are in our peak severe weather season
things could get busy once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Mainly VFR but there are a few low clouds building in at KMAF/KHOB
lowering conditions to IFR, but should clear in the next few
hours as westerly winds ramp up. Gusty west winds for much of the
afternoon before dying out around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Fire weather concerns increase today given a combination of
escalating factors. A very dry airmass will spread east today
across our area with RH values below 5 percent by this afternoon.
Little recovery is expected each night with these RH values
reappearing each day through the weekend. Winds will remain
generally under 15 mph for most locations except across the higher
terrain which will be influenced by deeper mixing pushing winds
to gust to near 40 mph at times. These stronger winds will lead to
critical fire weather conditions both today and again Saturday in
the stronger, wind-favored areas. Fuels continue to degrade
across the west and ERC values will reach extreme levels (>97th
percentile) this afternoon. Given these fuel conditions will exist
into the weekend another Fire Weather Watch is likely for Saturday
as weather conditions worsen. While dry air will spread across the
entire area, recent rains and green- up will help prevent major
concerns for fire starts further east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  62  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  62  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  103  69 103  69 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  65  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    93  59  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    91  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     96  63  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  64  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  61  98  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...88