071
FXUS64 KMAF 270904
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
404 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

WV imagery shows a dirty ridge building into West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this morning.  Clear skies, the absence of a
LLJ, and a very dry airmass are promoting efficient radiational
cooling, allowing overnight minimums to cool to only 2-4F above
normal.

Memorial Day, the ridge overhead strengthens, increasing thicknesses
and afternoon temperatures an average of 5F over Sunday`s.  That
said, we`ll reissue the same Heat Advisory as yesterday`s, throwing
in the Davis Mountains/Foothills, Chisos Basin, central Brewster,
and Pecos Counties.

Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ develops, replenishing the boundary layer over
the eastern CWA with rich Gulf moisture, advecting 70+F dewpoints
into the lower Trans Pecos by 12Z Tuesday.  This, along with
increasing mid/high cloud, will yield overnight lows 3-4F higher
than tonight`s.  This will also bank the dryline up against the
higher terrain.  Models develop convection south of the border, and
a stray cell or two could cross the river overnight.

This will all prime the pump for a potentially busy day of
convection on Tuesday.  At 18Z Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to
be moving through the South Plains just north of the CWA.  Models
put the triple point somewhere invof northern Lea or Gaines
Counties.  To the west a shortwave will be conveniently moving
through the ridge.  If this can overcome the cap during the
afternoon, all bets are off.  In the warm sector, the latest NAM
forecast soundings on the lower Trans Pecos depict mucapes in excess
of 5000 J/kg, w/dry subcloud layers promoting dcapes 1500-2000 J/kg.
 Deep layer shear 40-60kts is forecast along/east of the dryline,
and mid-level lapse rates of 7-9C/km or even steeper.  Needless to
say, Tuesday afternoon looks busy.  Increased moisture, cloud cover,
and anticipated convection will keep afternoon highs a couple of
degrees cooler than today`s, but a Heat Advisory looks warranted
again for at least lower Brewster county.|

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

After any storms that fire off Tuesday afternoon/evening, storm
activity should be out of the area after 03z Wednesday with likely
numerous outflows that have swept through. Nevertheless,
southeasterly return flow will replenish any overturned moisture
with the dryline shoved back along and west of the Pecos River by
12z. A notable difference in Wednesday`s setup compared to Tuesday
will be the upper ridge axis shifting to be more overhead. To the
degree this affects storm potential is still somewhat uncertain,
though forecast soundings hint at a slightly stronger subsidence-
driven cap that could inhibit storm development. Of course,
lingering boundaries and elevated heat sources may overcome this
cap, but this is generally conditional on how Tuesday shakes out.
Complicating the setup further on Wednesday is what looks to be a
weak back-door front set to nose into the northeastern Permian Basin
which could help focus storm development in this region. Still, the
thinking here is that Wednesday`s storm coverage will be notably
lower than on Tuesday`s and the NBM is going a little
overboard...have cut down PoPs on Wednesday accordingly with the
highest PoPs remaining across the northeastern Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains.

The upper ridge nudges eastward by Thursday with slightly more
progressive westerlies aiding in mixing the dryline a bit further
east than Tues/Wed. A fairly stagnant surface pattern sets up for
the latter portion of the week with the dryline mixing into the east-
central Permian Basin, possibly firing off a few storms, then
retreating back west of the TX-NM state line at night. The passage
of a shortwave within the quasi-zonal upper flow could enhance storm
activity some that day which appears to occur on Thursday and again
on Saturday. We`re nosing into the "peak" of our severe weather
season at this point folks so we`ll just take it day by day.

Wednesday looks to be the "coolest" day of the long term for some
across northern/eastern Permian Basin thanks to the backdoor cold
front and added clouds/precipitation chances. Elsewhere and as we
move into the weekend, above normal temperatures persist with highs
in the mid-upper 90s with 100+ degrees in the river valleys. Of most
concern is along the Rio Grande in Big Bend National Park where
temperatures will likely exceed 110 degrees each afternoon.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

No changes. VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few
high clouds increasing tonight. Light westerly winds today will
veer back to return flow after sundown.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Extremely low humidity (near 4-5%) persists this afternoon after yet
another morning of poor moisture recovery for much of the region.
However, winds will be much lighter and should only regularly exceed
20 mph in and around the Guadalupe Mountains. Near-critical to
critical RFTIs are possible for a few hours here this afternoon, but
with relatively low fuel density and limited opportunities for fire
starts, have declined any fire weather headlines for this afternoon.
A similar story sets up for Tuesday afternoon but much better
moisture recovery works in tonight. Fire weather concerns remain
limited through the weekend with good recovery each night and
relatively light winds. Very dry conditions set up west of the
dryline and little to no moisture relief is expected for the far
western zones. Along and east of the dryline, scattered storms are
possible nearly every afternoon moving into early next week which
will be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  70  98  66 /   0   0  50  40
Carlsbad                100  65 102  65 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  107  75  99  71 /   0  10  50  30
Fort Stockton           105  73 102  68 /   0  10  50  20
Guadalupe Pass           92  70  92  63 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    98  63  98  62 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                    97  61  97  57 /   0  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport    102  70  98  67 /   0   0  40  30
Odessa                  101  71  99  67 /   0   0  40  30
Wink                    104  70 103  68 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Pecos-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44