741
ACUS11 KWNS 042347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042346
OKZ000-KSZ000-050045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Oklahoma and Southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...392...

Valid 042346Z - 050045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390, 392
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across parts of
southern Kansas and Oklahoma over the next one to two hours. Large
hail and severe gusts will be possible, and a tornado or two will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows several
cumulus towers forming immediately to the west of Oklahoma City and
further southwest toward Lawton. The cumulus towers are located
within a very moist and unstable airmass. The latest RAP analysis
has a corridor of extreme instability from north Texas into southern
and west-central Oklahoma, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to
5000 J/kg range. This airmass, along with increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with a vorticity max moving southeastward into
Oklahoma, will likely result in rapid cell initiation across parts
of southwest and west-central Oklahoma over the next hour. RAP
forecast soundings around 00Z from near and to the west of Oklahoma
City southwestward along the I-44 corridor, have 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 35 knot range, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250
m2/s2. This will likely support supercell development, with a threat
for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado or two. Convective
coverage is expected to rapidly increase over the next couple of
hours.

Further to the north across southern Kansas, a strongly unstable
airmass is also in place, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to
3500 J/kg range. As the cluster of storms in south-central Kansas
moves southward toward the Oklahoma state line over the next couple
of hours, the severe threat is expected to increase. Isolated large
hail and wind damage will be possible with these storms.

..Broyles.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   34069737 34299820 34649864 35299908 36219916 36809902
            37599871 37849830 37879778 37739726 37259700 36649700
            35569670 34779629 34299642 34119667 34069737