581
ACUS11 KWNS 082320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082320
KSZ000-COZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeast and east-central CO into far
southwest/west-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

Valid 082320Z - 090045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail (up to 2.75 inches), significant
gusts (70-80 mph), and a couple tornadoes continues across parts of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KGLD/KPUX depicts a pair of
intense discrete supercells tracking generally east/southeastward at
around 20 kt over Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and Lincoln Counties in
east-central CO. A tornado and baseball-sized hail has been reported
with the northern/eastern supercell. These storms are in a very
favorable environment for the maintenance of supercells, with
moist/backed easterly surface winds (lower 60s dewpoints) beneath a
belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies (per regional VWP).
Additionally, ample clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (around
250 m2/s2 effective SRH) should support continued strong
low/midlevel mesocyclones given the seperated/discrete mode. As a
result, very large hail (up to 2.75 inches) and a couple tornadoes
are the main concern with these storms, with locally damaging gusts
also probable.

Farther south over Otero and Bent Counties in southeastern CO, an
intense line segment has evolved in a moderately unstable air mass.
40 kt of effective shear orthogonal to the line and a
moist/well-mixed boundary layer should support the maintenance or
even intensification of these storms as they continue eastward.
Significant gusts of 70-80 mph could accompany this activity. A
brief mesovortex tornado or two is also possible with these storms,
given the ample low-level SRH described above.

..Weinman.. 06/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38860341 39350279 39340241 39210205 38810190 38020196
            37610219 37580294 37690359 37920368 38510352 38860341