971
ACUS11 KWNS 081916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081915
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Colorado...extreme
northeastern New Mexico...extreme southwestern Kansas...Oklahoma
Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081915Z - 082115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms
this afternoon, with the greatest chance of storms occurring along a
stationary boundary along the TX/OK Panhandles border area. Given
the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Upslope flow over the Raton Mesa is contributing to
convective initiation, with additional storm development likely as
strong surface heating continues along an west-east oriented
baroclinic boundary situated near the TX/OK Panhandle border.
Surface temperatures near this boundary are approaching 100 F amid
50-60 F surface dewpoints, resulting in the development of a deep
boundary layer. RAP forecast soundings show classic inverted-V
profiles extending up to 600 mb. 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates
support thin CAPE profiles, from 600-200 mb, atop the deep boundary
layer. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear, mainly pulse-cellular
storms with dry microburst potential are expected, with the best
chance of storms being along the baroclinic zone. Given the overall
isolated coverage of thunderstorms and associated severe gust
potential, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37220483 37460352 37390139 36980038 36340010 35890039
            35750095 35840179 35920287 36070357 36390430 37220483