Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 060217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060217
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-060315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024
Areas affected...far northeastern MD...northern DE and southern NJ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060217Z - 060315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms near the MD/DE border may
continue east with the risk for an isolated tornado or damaging gust
this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of low topped storms near the MD/DE border. Thee storms have
retained transient supercell characteristics near a subtle warm
frontal zone across northern DelMarVa. Ahead of these storms, SPC
mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 J/kg of residual MUCAPE
sufficient for continued updraft maintenance. Low-level shear
remains favorable for some storm-scale rotation with KDOX VAD
showing 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While storms have shown less
intensity with time, the environment ahead of them remains
conditionally favorable for a brief tornado or isolated damaging
gusts for a couple more hours this evening. The exact eastward
extent of the severe risk is uncertain as nocturnal stabilization
has begun with the loss of diurnal heating. However, a very moist
low-level environment (dewpoints in the 70s F) may slow
stabilization and allow storms to remain near surface-based into
parts of eastern DE and southern NJ.
..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...
LAT...LON 39137579 39227615 39357629 39507623 39647603 39717568
39747525 39667496 39567474 39457464 39287476 39107488
39067499 39057509 39077543 39137579