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ACUS11 KWNS 051925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051925
VAZ000-MDZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051925Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with a
risk of isolated gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado or
two.  Limited areal coverage and brief nature of risk suggests a
watch will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...A band of scattered showers and occasional
thunderstorms is spreading northeastward across eastern VA into
eastern MD.  In the wake of this activity, strong daytime heating is
leading to destabilization of a rather moist air mass across central
VA, where MLCAPE values have risen into the 1000-1500 J/kg range.
Model guidance suggests the approach of a weak mid-level shortwave
trough, with an accompanied increase in low-level winds.  This will
result in some strengthening of shear profiles and a greater chance
of a few more organized or weak supercellular storms in the coming
hours.  Locally damaging wind gusts are the most likely concern, but
a brief tornado or two are also possible through the afternoon.
Given the limited nature of the threat, a ww is not currently
anticipated.

..Hart/Smith.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37327936 37977927 38657874 39097812 38937733 38577696
            37727685 36977749 36747831 36907913 37327936