999
ACUS11 KWNS 092033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092032
IDZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Nevada to central Idaho and far southwest
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092032Z - 092230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
through early evening across northeastern Nevada into Idaho and far
southwest Montana. Sporadic hail and damaging to severe winds are
possible, but this threat should remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies.
GOES daytime RGB imagery shows multiple agitated cumulus fields from
central NV into central ID as ascent overspreads the region ahead of
a mid-level disturbance over central NV and a more prominent
shortwave trough approaching the Cascades. Additionally, regional
temperatures continue to generally rise into the low to mid 80s,
which should be sufficient to erode any lingering inhibition.
These trends suggest that additional thunderstorm development is
likely within the next couple of hours.

MRMS echo top and vertical ice data show that most cells have been
relatively transient, but a few more robust updrafts have persisted
across northern NV ahead of the mid-level disturbance. The KCBX VWP
has recently sampled 25-35 knot winds between 5-6 km, suggesting
that the better kinematic environment resides across northern NV to
central ID. This region also has slightly better moisture content
(GOES-estimated PWAT values between 0.8-1.0 inch) compared to the
rest of the region. Consequently, storms developing in or migrating
into this region may see the highest potential for large hail and
severe wind given the better thermodynamic and kinematic
environment. Severe wind may be the more probable of the two hazards
given somewhat modest buoyancy profiles within the hail production
layer and modest hodograph elongation compared to 8-9 C/km lapse
rates from the surface to 3 km AGL and the increasing potential for
storm interactions/upscale growth through early evening as
additional convection develops. This idea appears to be well
supported by high-res probabilistic hazard guidance, though the
overall coverage of the severe threat should remain sufficiently low
to preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   41371360 40861412 40551495 40471560 40621614 41081654
            41921675 42841648 43541601 44201527 44981389 45291283
            45251228 44981195 44501159 43371172 41961298 41371360