Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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398
ACUS11 KWNS 131915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131914
FLZ000-132145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Areas affected...eastern Florida peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131914Z - 132145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing and
moving southward through the afternoon posing an isolated damaging
wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the eastern
peninsula of Florida in a very moist and unstable environment.
While the deep-layer flow/shear is weak (per XMR 15Z sounding),
there does appear to be enhanced north-northwesterly low-level flow
likely associated with the midlevel low off the east coast of
Florida. As a result, 0-3 km northerly shear is around 20 knots
(per MLB VWP), which is at least modestly supportive of
southward-propagating clusters capable of producing severe, damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon. The localized, isolated nature of
the threat will preclude watch issuance.
..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...
LAT...LON 27188072 27988127 28728176 29518220 30008236 30348178
30398133 30078116 29118082 28618055 28138042 27338026
27148019 27188072
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH